Comparison of the Deffeyes Plot with the Staged Parabolic Technique for the
Prediction of the Peak in the World Production of Conventional Oil

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The plotting technique used by K.S. Deffeyes in a recent book was applied to a current assessment of future world production extending through to 2050 prepared by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). The ultimate production of conventional oil (broadly defined) is predicted to be 2300 gigabarrels (GB). This technique was then modified to predict the magnitude and timing of the peak in the world production of conventional oil by incorporating resource assessments published by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2000. The results obtained were compared with the previous predictions based upon the Staged Parabolic Technique reported in an earlier paper. The values calculated for the magnitude of the peak from the Deffeyes Plot were found to be in reasonable agreement but the timing was found to occur about three years earlier than when the parabolic method was employed.

Revised July 2002 with 2001 production statistics.
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