Graph of Projected World Emissions of Carbon Dioxide from
Conventional Oil for Different Values of Peak Production

Graph with supporting text in .pdf format
The parabolic technique developed for the projection of geological resource assessments has been applied to the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions from conventional oil production. In a previous note, it was found that the magnitude of the peak in oil production is a linear function of the date at which it occurs. This relationship is used here as the basis of a graph of emissions of carbon dioxide for various values of the peak in production of conventional oil on a world basis. The most probable date for the peak is expected about 2015 based upon the 1990 Assessment of the U.S. Geological Survey. Emissions in this case rise substantially above those from conventional oil production in 1990, the base year specified for reductions in the Kyoto Protocol which is expected to come into force in February 2005. Not until the period from 2038 to 2053 do the emissions from conventional oil production return to the 1990 level. Other cases are correspondingly higher.

December 2004
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