Note on the Delay in the Peak of Supply
of
Liquid Fuel for Transportation Applications Derived
from Conventional Oil by Greater Allocation to this Sector
John H. Walsh
Energy Advisor
Full
text of Note with Figure
Summary
The peak in the world production of oil from
conventional sources is expected within the next few
decades and probably about 2020. By applying a parabolic
projection technique to the Mean Case of a major assessment
of the remaining conventional oil resources published by
the U.S. Geological Survey in 2000, the peak was found to
occur in 2017. Under the influence of higher prices or
other policy initiatives, the fraction of the conventional
oil available devoted to the mobile needs of the
transportation sector is assumed to increase in this note
from 65% in 2010 to 85% in 2030 and remain constant
thereafter. Given these assumptions, it was found that the
date of the peak of supply to the transportation sector is
delayed by some thirteen years to 2030 as compared to the
peak in total conventional oil production. This delay may
be important because the extra time will assist in the
introduction of other options whether in the field of non-
conventional oil production or new transportation
technologies.
Home
Page of J.H. Walsh
December 2001
19 Lambton Avenue, Ottawa,
Ontario, K1M OZ6
Tel: (613) 745-6279
E-Mail:
jhwalsh@ca.inter.net