Note on the Delay in the Peak of Supply of
Liquid Fuel for Transportation Applications Derived from Conventional Oil by Greater Allocation to this Sector

John H. Walsh
Energy Advisor

Full text of Note with Figure


The peak in the world production of oil from conventional sources is expected within the next few decades and probably about 2020. By applying a parabolic projection technique to the Mean Case of a major assessment of the remaining conventional oil resources published by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2000, the peak was found to occur in 2017. Under the influence of higher prices or other policy initiatives, the fraction of the conventional oil available devoted to the mobile needs of the transportation sector is assumed to increase in this note from 65% in 2010 to 85% in 2030 and remain constant thereafter. Given these assumptions, it was found that the date of the peak of supply to the transportation sector is delayed by some thirteen years to 2030 as compared to the peak in total conventional oil production. This delay may be important because the extra time will assist in the introduction of other options whether in the field of non- conventional oil production or new transportation technologies.

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December 2001
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