Governments should work together to develop the market in a consistent manner and support both early-stage and commercial projects.
Copies of the The Report of the National Advisory Panel on Sustainable Energy Science and Technology may be downloaded in whole or by separate section from the Office of Energy Research and Development of Natural Resources Canada at www.nrcan.gc.ca/eps/oerd-brde.
2006 Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development
The Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, Johanne Gélinas, released her yearly report to Parliament dated 28 September 2006 in which she examined the government’s efforts in the field of climate change. The report assesses such issues as governance and accountability, monitoring of systems, setting of targets and development of policy tools, together with the evaluation of certain specific programs established in this field. The latter include the domestic system for trading greenhouse gas emissions, Sustainable Development Technology Canada’s climate change activities, the Wind Power Production Incentive, the EnerGuide program for existing houses, and the ethanol expansion program. It also reports on the progress individual departments have made in the field of sustainable development with a review of 39 commitments by 21 departments of government. The tone of the report is generally critical.
The Commissioner’s Report provides a useful insight into the actions of the government at the operating program level. Copies (ISBN 0-662-43950-3) of the boxed set of five chapters, in English or French, may be downloaded at www.oag-bvg.gc.ca or obtained from the Office of the Auditor General, 240 Sparks St. Stop 10-1, Ottawa, Ont. (E-mail: distribution@oag-bvg.gc.ca, Fax: 613-943-5485)
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage: A Compendium of Canada’s Participation
This compendium has been prepared by John F. Legg and Frank R. Campbell for Natural Resources Canada with the aim of assisting those interested in this field to identify gaps, set priorities, and promote cooperation, and to serve as a reference for those representing Canada in international fora. The report seeks to compile all Canadian activity in the field of carbon dioxide capture and storage. The first section provides brief overviews of the main Canadian organizations engaged in CCS activities, including the relevant international organizations in which Canada participates. A total of 83 such organizations are identified. The second section provides summaries of 126 specific projects either underway to the end of 2005 or recently completed. In the third section, five related strategic planning documents are listed.
Copies of this report dated January 2006 (ISBN: 0-662-43044-1) totaling 245 pages may be downloaded in .pdf form at dsp-psd.pwgsc.gc.ca/Collection/M4-39-2006E, or may be found easily with Google employing the following search words: carbon dioxide capture storage compendium Canada.
Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability 2006-2008
The report is another in a series of Energy Market Assessments prepared by the National Energy Board. It is of special interest because of concerns about the supply of natural gas available for the coming winter. In this well-documented study of 46 pages with many graphs and charts, the Board expects a production increase of only about one per cent over this period. The flow of natural gas from conventional sources is expected to continue to decline but this fall should be more than compensated by the production from the non-conventional coalbed methane sources. With production and demand in such close balance and with the growing needs of the oil sands industry, continued volatility in prices is expected to continue. It is noteworthy that an onshore field in New Brunswick will be connected to the pipeline network in early 2007.
Copies of this report (ISBN 0-662-44128-1) may either be downloaded from the Board at www.neb-one.gc.ca or obtained by contacting the NEB at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta T2P 0X8. (E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca)
Short Notes
- An Ottawa startup – Group IV Semiconductor – is developing a white light-emitting diode (LED) based upon silicon. The company believes it has found a way to develop a low-energy consuming light that can compete with the familiar incandescent bulbs which, though cheap to manufacture, lose about 95% of the electricity consumed in the form of heat. In the Group IV Company’s approach, the light is emitted from a layer of silicon nanocrystals mounted in a sandwich formed of a transparent layer and a substrate of silicon. The company intends to have a demonstrable working light bulb in three years which could be introduced into the marketplace in five. The work is supported in part by EnCana Corporation and Sustainable Development Technology Canada.
- Saskpower has chosen oxy-fuel combustion as its route to deal with greenhouse gas emissions from coal. Lignite would be burned in oxygen and the resulting combustion gas cooled to acceptable boiler entrance temperatures by re-circulating some of the flue gas. The carbon dioxide would be separated from the steam which is the only other major constituent of the leaving flue gas. The captured carbon dioxide would then be applied to enhanced oil recovery operations where it will be sequestered. On 31 October 2006, the power company formally entered into agreements with Babcox and Wilcox and Air Liquide to develop the technology which has also been tested at the CANMET Laboratories of Natural Resources Canada. The aim is to place a 300 MW installation in service by 2011. The advantage of this route is the low cost of separation of the carbon dioxide from the other flue gases; the disadvantage the additional cost of using oxygen in place of air. Two smaller units using this technology are planned in Australia and Germany.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for September 2006
New Reports
US Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan
Despite the decision of the U.S. government not to adhere to the Kyoto Protocol, this major Strategic Plan that focuses on the technological options available to deal with climate change was released by the U.S. Department of Energy in September of 2006. The object was to produce a document that `articulates a vision for the role for advanced technology in addressing climate change concerns, provides a supporting long-term planning context with insights from analysis, and establishes goals, approaches, and guiding principles for Federal R and D agencies to use in formatting climate change-related technology components of their respective R and D portfolios.’ Considerable sums of money are already involved in this effort of the order three billion dollars over the next ten years. The Plan also deals with cooperative activities with other countries including Canada.
Major chapters of the Plan are devoted to such subjects as: Long-Term Planning Under Uncertainty; Goals for Technology Development; Potential to Reduce Mitigation Costs; Considerations of Timing; Strategies for Technology Development and Deployment; Key Initiatives; Contributions of Basic Science; Emerging Priorities; and Next Steps. It is clear that the U.S. approach to dealing with climate change will be heavily dependent upon the development of new technologies, including the introduction of advanced nuclear reactors and a heavy reliance on carbon capture and storage techniques.
This long Strategic Plan of over 200 pages may be downloaded in whole or in part at www.climatetechnology.gov in .pdf form. Hard copies will be available later in 2006.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for August 2006
New Reports
A New Era for Oil Prices
John V. Mitchell, prominent in the U.K. oil industry and now an Associate Fellow of the Energy, Environment and Development Programme at
Chatham House in London, has written a report based in part on meetings held by that independent institution under `Chatham House rules’ entitled A New Era for Oil Prices. A higher price in now seen as the new norm in the future but it is placed conservatively at more than $US2004 50. `The single most important reason is that growing demand has eliminated the structural surplus of crude production capacity which has existed since the oil price shock of 1979-83.’ `Meanwhile, supply and demand are set to expand roughly in balance over the next five years, though there are many uncertainties which will lead to short-term fluctuations.’
This report makes the central point that more oil is being used in transport and other sectors around the world than need be given the price. Many efficiencies are possible in the transportation sector of the U.S. where consumption could be reduced at least ten per cent if the vehicle fleet were to be operated to the present standards of fuel efficiency in Japan and the European Union; the five per cent of world oil consumption consumed for power generation could be reduced to two per cent if other countries approached U.S. standards; and similar examples exist in other applications for oil all of which do not require any major change in technology. Nevertheless these changes occur slowly, and the experience has been a period of about three years is generally required to establish a new equilibrium in the energy system after a substantial change in the oil price. The main policy conclusions of this paper are: oil price stability is an unattainable goal with the loss of the structural surplus of production capacity; a new equilibrium will not wait for new technology; natural gas will become more important especially if an open trading market can be established for international supplies; and the power sector is not of great importance to oil.
Few concessions are made to the new peak oil theorists although the work of Skrebowski is recognized. The report of 32 pages and dated August 2006 is well documented with seven figures which may be downloaded in .pdf form at www.chathamhouse.org.uk. (Chatham House, 10 St James Square, London, SW1Y 4LE England; Fax: +44 (0) 20 7957 5710)
Canadian Energy Up-Date for July 2006
New Reports
Advice on a Long-term Strategy on Energy and Climate Change from the
National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy
The National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy has released Advice on a Long-term Strategy on Energy and Climate Change in July of 2006. This strategy is claimed to be a first in that it focuses on what a low carbon future might look like for Canada over the next 45 years. Unlike most previous studies of this kind, it recognizes from the start that Canada is unique among industrialized nations in that it is at the same time a major consumer, producer, and exporter of energy. The Long-term Strategy addresses the problem of how to deal with the needs of a growing economy, to achieve substantial reductions in carbon emissions, and to improve the quality of the air by 2050. Only presently available technologies are assumed to be deployed. The report summarizes its findings in this way: (1) there can be a domestic solution to making significant reductions in greenhouse gases by mid-century but only if energy is consumed more efficiently and, at the same time, it is produced while emitting less carbon; (2) increasing the efficiency with which energy is used is the key option; and (3) there must be the adoption of carbon capture and sequestration by the energy producing industry, whether in the production of oil and gas or in the generation of electricity. It also notes the need for a long-term signal to encourage the choice of suitable technologies by industry, and that there are significant co-benefits to such a strategy in terms of gains in air quality and other environmental improvements.
Copies of the Long-term Strategy (33 pages) may be obtained from the Round Table at 344 Slater Street, Suite 200, Ottawa, Ontario, K1R 7Y3 or downloaded in .pdf form at www.nrtee-trnee.ca. (Fax: 613-992-7385)
Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics
The Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) for the Third Quarter of 2006 contains a review of the significant presentations to the 29th IAEE International Conference held in 7-10 June 2006 in Potsdam, Germany, by its Chairman Georg Erdmann. In other papers, Lord David Howell writes on The Global Energy Scene in which he argues there is no such thing as full energy security and that the best kind of security, as far as it can be obtained, comes from diversity and the ability to switch beteen a variety of energy sources. Matthias Platzek writes on Energy in the State of Brandenburg; Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran on Power to the People; Mamdouh G. Salameh on Should OPEC Price its Oil in a Basket of Currencies Rather than the U.S. Dollar?; Guy Maisonnier on The Ties Between Natural Gas and Oil Prices; and Phillia Restiani on Furthering Adaptation Measures and its Synergies with Mitigation Measures.
The Newsletter may be obtained from the IAEE at 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. (Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
Canadian Energy Up-Date for June 2006
New Reports
National Energy Board Report on Natural Gas Use for Power Generation
In another report in its Energy Market Assessment series, the
National Energy Board has issued Natural Gas for Power Generation: Issues and Implications in June of 2006. This report of 50 pages gives a comprehensive review of the situation by tracing the history of the rapid rise of gas-based electricity generation during the period of low gas prices of the past decade into the present very different price environment.
The report is organized into the following sections: Introduction, Western Market – Regional Analysis; Eastern Market – Regional Analysis; Central Market – Regional Analysis; and finally Observations and Conclusions. The many figures and charts are especially valuable. The Board believes that total gas demand in Canada will grow by about 10 % by 2010 and that some 42% of this growth will be directed to gas-fired generation. The trend in the U.S. is even more striking where natural gas-fired generation has accounted for 96% of the additional 25 % capacity in electrical capacity installed during the last five years. The supply from conventional gas sources is not likely to meet this expanding demand in the next years so price increases are to be expected as the energy system turns to more costly non-conventional sources such as coalbed methane and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imported from gas-surplus nations in specialized tanker ships. Moreover, there will also be a need for expanded investment in the infrastructure of the gas delivery system. The report notes that gas and power markets will become more intertwined over time but does not comment on the wisdom of slavishly following current market prices when making future choices for the generation of electricity.
Copies of Natural Gas for Power Generation (ISBN 0-662-43472-2), in either English or French, may be obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8. (Web: www.neb-one.gc.ca; E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca; Toll Free Tel: 1-800-899-1265)
Royal Society Guide to Facts and Fictions about Climate Change
The Royal Society of London has prepared a short report which replies to common misconceptions, either deliberate or otherwise, about climate change. `The document examines twelve misleading arguments put forward by the opponents of urgent action on climate change and highlights the scientific evidence that exposes their flaws.’ These arguments range from: `The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has become too politicised and does not adequately reflect the wide range of views within the scientific community. The IPCC summary for policy-makers does not adequately represent the scientific community.’ to `The Kyoto Protocol is a waste of time because the United States will not ratify it. The emission reduction targets required under the Kyoto Protocol are “trivial” and would do no more than postpone global warming for six years. Implementing the Kyoto Protocol would be too costly. The trillions of dollars that would be wasted on the Kyoto Protocol should be spent on helping developing countries tackle poverty.’ A group led by Sir David Wallace FRS and Sir John Houghton FRS prepared the replies. Copies may be downloaded from the Royal Society at www.royalsociety.org. ( Mail: 6-9 Carlton House Terrace, London, England, SW1Y 5AG; Fax: +44(0) 207930-2170)
National Energy Board Report on Oil Sands Opportunities and Challenges
The National Energy Board issued Canada’s Oil Sands – Opportunities and Challenges to 2015: An Update in June of 2006. This report is one in the series of Energy Market Assessments issued from time to time and complements a similar report on the oil sands published only as recently as 2004. The Board now estimates that production from the oil sands could nearly triple to three million barrels per day by 2015 from the 1.1 million barrels per day produced in 2005, an increase of nearly 40% from that projected in the previous report. Although a major expansion, this value is somewhat lower than recent industry estimates. Already there have been further developments in a rapidly evolving situation since the new 2006 version has been released.
The text is presented in the following sections: Introduction; Supply Costs; Crude Oil Supply; Markets; Major Crude Oil Pipelines; Environment and Socio-Economic Aspects; Electricity Opportunities; and Petrochemical Feedstock Opportunities. There are five appendices that include a list giving the status of announced projects together with the main economic and market assumptions employed for the supply cost models for the Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) and Mining and Upgrading options considered in detail in the body of the text. Many useful tables and maps are also provided.
Increases in the price for the natural gas required for process use and the diluent required for the pipeline transportation of bitumen, together with the rising costs of construction are the main factors that have led to a significant increase in the estimate of the supply costs for the two cases examined in detail - an `in-situ’ SAGD operation and an integrated mining and upgrading facility. The strengthening of the Canadian dollar further complicates these cost estimates. The supply cost of recovered but not upgraded bitumen in the SAGD process is placed at between $C(2005) 18-22 and that of Synthetic Crude Oil from the integrated mining/upgrading facility at between $C(2005) 36-40, both significantly higher than previous estimates. The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) on trading markets was assumed to be only $US(2005) 50 in the report.
The document presents an excellent overview of the present rapidly evolving situation in the development of the oil sands. Copies of Canada’s Oil Sands (ISBN 0-662-43353-X), in either English or French, may be obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8. (Web: www.neb-one.gc.ca; E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca; Toll Free Tel: 1-800- 899-1265)
Canadian Energy Up-Date for May 2006
New Reports
Special Issue of the Energy Journal Devoted to Endogenous Technological Change
A special issue of the The Energy Journal (Vol. 27) of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEA) has been devoted to the subject of Endogenous Technological Change and the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilisation. A total of thirteen papers deal with various aspects of this important subject in this issue including an Overview and a Synthesis Report which is dated March 2006 in the Preface. These papers represent significant progress in matching bottom-up with top-down approaches to the energy system.
The Overview notes that the problem of climate change is `long-term, deep and global’ so the question as to how to model technological change is central to decision-making relative to climate change policy. In the first generations of energy modeling studies from the late 1980s until the mid-1990s, technology was introduced through a set of exogenous assumptions applied to both the top-down and bottom-up models of the day. `Unfortunately for policy, these two line of enquiry appeared to lead to opposite conclusions about the implications of endogenous technological change.’ Since the turn of the present century, new approaches have emerged and this volume appears at an opportune time to assess the state of the art. The importance of induced technological change was addressed in the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project which `represents a first systematic attempt to assess and compare the progress made through different modeling approaches and to offer some first insights into what this may mean for tackling the biggest long-term challenge in the energy sector, namely the goal of transforming energy systems in ways that could stabilize the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The papers in this volume address and amplify this issue.
This volume may well prove a milestone in the reconciliation of the technological and economic approaches to a better understanding of what is required to deal with climate change. In fact, the `spill-over’ effect of one technology on another may be effective more widely than the editors may have intended, because, in a more general sense, the same effect may be widely applicable to the whole question of the interrelationship of technological and economic studies in all fields, not just climate change. The Energy Journal (ISSN 0195-6574) is published by the International Association for Energy Economics, 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. ((Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
2005 Annual Report of the National Energy Board
The Annual Report of the National Energy Board Report provi(Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
des an annual snapshot of the progress of the Canadian energy industry. The past year was an exceptional one for the industry with a record 25,000 wells drilled of which 5,000 were directed to oil (including those associated with oil sands activity) and 20,000 to natural gas production (including 3,000 wells aimed at Coalbed Methane) under the influence of high and volatile energy prices. Nevertheless, for a variety of reasons, total oil production decreased some three percent compared with 2004. Conventional gas production was essentially constant and the small overall increase was due to the non-conventional CBM, which contributed about two percent to the total gas supply.
The energy industry accounted for almost six percent of the GDP in 2005 and employed about 330,000 people or some 1.9 percent of the national workforce. Energy exports accounted for about $80 billion or an estimated 19 percent share of the value of all Canadian goods and services exported that year. On a net basis, energy exports reached $46 billion, an increase from the $38.6 billion reported in 2004. Nevertheless, total Canadian energy production remained essentially flat for 2005 over 2004 despite the smaller increases from hydropower, nuclear energy, coal, and renewable and related sources. In general, Canadian energy production has been increasing an average of about one percent per year over the past five years. Canadian energy consumption increased 2.4 percent in 2005 with the five-year trend 2.3 percent per year. The five-year increase in GDP is 2.9 percent/year, which suggests there has been a small but steady decrease in energy intensity over this period.
Canada remained the leading crude oil supplier to the U.S. over Mexico and Saudi Arabia and net exports of natural gas to that country represented 53 percent of Canadian gas production. Net electricity exports rose a large 125 percent compared to 2004 partly due to more favourable water conditions.
In addition to chapters on regulatory, infrastructure, and related affairs, the Annual Report includes many maps, tables and several appendices containing much useful statistical information. Copies may be obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8. (Web: www.neb-one.gc.ca; E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca; Fax: (403) 292-5576)
Natural Gas Potential in Canada (2005)
The Canadian Gas Potential Committee has issued its first update of its natural gas assessment since that issued to cover the situation to the end of 2001. The Committee, a volunteer organization composed of experts drawn largely from the gas industry and related institutions in government and academia, issued its new report in May of 2006 with the resource estimate effective to the end of 2005. The Committee has increased its estimate of the gas originally in place in Canada from conventional sources to 652 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 60 TCF from the 592 reported in the 2001 report. The Committee believes there are 227 TCF of marketable gas remaining from conventional resources and another 11-45 TCF of marketable methane derived from non–conventional coalbed methane sources. (Web: www.canadiangaspotential.com; Fax (403) 297-6986; Mailing Address: Energy Resources Building, 640 – Fifth Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 3G4)
The Availability of Non-Conventional Oil and Gas
This short report of 16 pages prepared for the Department of Trade and Industry in London by Dr. C.J. Campbell of ASPO-Ireland, one of the founders of The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), provides a concise summary of the current view of that organization of the extent of the world’s oil and gas resources in the revision dated 18 March 2006. The report focuses on the resources of heavy oils, and prospects for oil from coal, shale oil, bitumen and extra-heavy oil, deepwater oil and gas, polar oil and gas, and natural gas liquids. Estimates are provided for resource-based conventional oil production out to 2075 and for non-conventional oil and gas until 2030 in a long table at the back of the paper. Production from the oil sands of Alberta is set to reach a plateau of only 2.5 million barrels per day by 2020. Numerous difficulties are cited to cause this author to limit his estimate of the maximum production to about one half that generally expected under business-as-usual conditions. He allowed, however, that `the Canadian tar sands do represent one of the best hopes of ameliorating the post peak decline of world oil supply.’ The peak of world conventional oil production is expected in 2006 and for all petroleum categories in 2010. Copies of this report may be downloaded in .pdf form from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London. (www.odac-info.org)
Report of the MIT Energy Research Council
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has made available its
Report of the Energy Research Council dated 3 May 2006 on the Web at web.mit.edu/erc/docs/erc-report-060502.pdf. The purpose of this report of 62 pages prepared by members of its Energy Research Council is to define the role and organization of MIT’s efforts in this field. A wide consensus was reached that there should be a broad initiative that `provides the enabling science and technology that may underpin transformation of the global energy system in several decades’; `develops the technology and policy needed to make today’s energy system more effective, secure, and environmentally responsible’; and `creates the energy technology and systems design needed for a rapidly developing world.’ To ensure the success of this energy initiative, the authors, after wide consultations, recommend the creation of an organization with a clearly defined responsibility to steer it and to serve as a focal point for cross-department and school initiatives and activities in energy.
It is a remarkable fact that despite the growing importance of energy to the world, there are few if any educational organizations expressly designed to serve it. Medicine and dentistry may have their own faculties but contributors to energy studies are educated in a diverse set of related fields. Energy experts do not have degrees in energy. In most universities, including those in Canada, the usual approach has been to establish interdisciplinary activities of one kind or another. The MIT report makes a strong case that this practice is increasingly inadequate. Unlike most reports of this kind, much attention is paid to the educational aspects of this subject starting at the undergraduate stage and extending through to outreach activities in developing countries.
The report is especially useful to any educational institution considering expansion or re-organization of its own activities in the energy field. It also provides an insight to the many activities impinging on the energy area now underway throughout the Institute in a convenient and focused way. Despite the greater relative importance of energy research to Canada, there is little evidence to date to any similar effort in this country.
Economic Impacts of Liquid Fuel Mitigation Options
The Executive Summary of this report prepared for The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) of the U.S. Department of Energy has been posted on the Web by the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in the U.K. This study, authored by Roger H. Bezdek and Robert M. Wendling of Management Information Services Inc. and Robert L. Hirsch of the SAIC group follows on from a previous extensive report by these same authors entitled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management dated February 2005. The new study considered four options that the U.S. could implement for the massive physical mitigation of its dependence on imported oil. The options chosen were: greater vehicle fuel efficiency; the liquefaction of coal, development of oil shale resources; and enhanced oil recovery. The purpose of the study was to elucidate the implications of the time required to save and produce significant quantities of liquid fuel, the related costs, and the impact on economic, fiscal and employment conditions. The very large deployment of production resources required to meet this objective and the time needed is estimated in the report which, although focused on the situation on the U.S., is a useful guide for those interested in such estimates in other countries. (Web: ODAC at www.odac-info.org)
A Robust Strategy for Sustainable Energy
A Robust Strategy for Sustainable Energy was prepared by Klaus S. Lackner and Jeffrey D. Sachs of Columbia University for the Brookings Institute in Washington, D.C. Both authors are well known in their respective fields of carbon sequestration and developmental economics. This long contribution of 54 pages of text is accompanied by prepared commentary, four pages of references, and many footnotes.
The paper begins with a survey of the oil supply situation and its relation to the problem of climate change. It notes the very large uncertainties that complicate the formulation of sustainable development strategies. The authors themselves summarize their main arguments in eight categories and these follow in abbreviated form:
- The use of large quantities of energy is central to the functioning of an advanced economy;
- Energy resources are fungible, especially among the fossil fuels;
- There are no serious long-term (century-scale) shortages of fossil-fuel supply once the interconvertability of oil and other fossil fuels is taken into account;
- The greater constraints are likely to emerge from environmental concerns, especially the rising concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide acting as a greenhouse gas;
- Realistic technologies that can mitigate the carbon challenge up to the middle of this century at modest cost are nearly ready for application;
- An extension of these technologies to implementations that are more exotic but still highly plausible could further reduce emissions in the second half of the century and lead to an energy infrastructure that, by the end of the century, could produce zero net emissions of carbon into the environment;
- These transitions will have to be implemented worldwide, and this will put financial pressure on today’s low-income countries;
- On a century-long time scale, the world’s current energy technologies are inadequate. Thus fundamental research into new, decarbonized energy systems is needed, alongside the more practical steps applied during the first half of the century.
This important strategy paper appears as a chapter in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2005, No.2 pp. 215-269 and may be downloaded as a .pdf file from www.brookings.edu.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for April 2006
New Reports
Stormy Weather Slide Presentation
A slide presentation prepared by Jeffrey Rubin, Chief Economist and Chief Strategist for CIBC World Markets in Toronto entitled Stormy Weather and dated April 2006 has been posted on the Web at research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/jr_apr_06.pdf. This presentation provides further support for his long-held view that oil prices will increase in the near future due to the need for demand destruction. Another bad hurricane season is expected in 2006 which will influence oil prices due to probable damage to production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. The presentation is oriented strongly to the Canadian situation and the expected effects on markets here.
Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics
The Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) for the Second Quarter of 2006 contains a long summary of a major paper by Roger W. Bentley (formerly of Reading University in the U.K.) entitled Global Oil and Gas Depletion - A Letter to the Energy Modelling Community that provides an extensive consideration of the issues involved in the interpretation of the world’s oil and gas resources. The complete paper is available from the author at r.w.bentley@reading.ac.uk. In other papers, Olivier Rech writes on Oil Supply and Demand; Christoph W. Frei on The Environmentalists Struggle with Energy Security Or: If Maslow Were in Energy Politics; and Christopher J. Jablonowski on Evidence on Risk Preferences in E and P Operations: Examining the Decision to Evacuate from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
The Newsletter may be obtained from the IAEE at 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. (Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
Short Notes
Canadian Energy Up-Date for March 2006
New Reports
Energy Market Assessment Reports from the National Energy Board
Emerging Technologies in Electricity Generation (ISBN 0-662-42710-6) was issued in March of 2006 to provide comprehensive information on the status and prospects for non-traditional technologies, the related issues, and regional perspectives in this field. This useful report was prepared after an extensive consultation process that involved both technical experts and facility operators. The purpose was to identify the barriers to the growth of `greener and cleaner’ electrical generation, and to help find ways these may be overcome. Canada is currently the fifth largest generator of electricity in the world but the emerging technologies account for only about three per cent of the total installed capacity at the present time. The main barriers were identified as: the lack of a coordinated strategy for research and development; the lack of access to transmission grids; burdensome regulatory processes; and the `need to allow electricity prices to reflect true market values, and capture the environmental benefits of emerging technologies.’
The technologies assessed from a Canadian viewpoint were: wind power; small hydro; biomass; geothermal energy; solar photovoltaics; fuel cells; ocean energy; clean coal; and techniques for Demand Management. Each option was reviewed under the following headings: technology (including operational characteristics and resource needs where applicable); Market and Regulatory Issues; Environmental Characteristics; Industry and Government Initiatives; and Regional Developments. A long chapter of the report was devoted to Regional Perspectives under the following headings: Provincial Policies and Programs; Utility and Consumer Strategies; and Near-term and Longer-term Prospects. There are many figures and tables throughout the text, which provide further useful and timely information. This report with a total of 93 pages together with additional introductory material is recommended as a reference document for anyone active in this field whether in Canada or elsewhere.
Northeast British Columbia’s Ultimate Potential for Conventional Natural Gas (Report 2006-A; ISBN 0-662-42630-4) was prepared jointly with the British Columbia Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources and was issued at the end of March 2006. The new reassessment of the gas resources of this region of the Province sets the conventional gas remaining available to meet future demand at 35 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) at the end of 2003, an increase of about 1 TCF over the previous assessment in 1994. B.C. generally supplies about 15 % of Canadian production.
Copies of these reports may be downloaded or obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta T2P 0X8. (Web: www.neb-one.gc.ca; Toll-free telephone: 1-800-899-1265; Toll-free Fax: 1-877-288-8803; E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca)
Short Notes
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 381 parts per million (volume), some 100 ppmv above the pre-industrial average. The concentration of this greenhouse gas increased 2.6 ppmv in 2005, one of the highest rates on record and double that of 30 years ago. This concentration is the highest it has been for over a million and possibly 30 million years. Also in March of 2006, NASA reported on two recent studies of changes to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets based upon observation by satellite. It was documented for the first time that the West Antarctic ice shelves were thinning, and that the Greenland ice sheet could be facing an irreversible decline by the end of this century. Sea ice on the Arctic Ocean has failed to re-form for the second consecutive winter. The Arctic ocean ice cover is at its lowest extent since satellite monitoring began in 1979, and is probably at its lowest in the past 100 years.
- The March 2006 issue of the IEEE journal
Spectrum Vol. 43 No.3 contains an extensive article by Erico Guizzo on the Brazilian development of enrichment facilites aimed at fuelling its reactors. Centrifuges of Brazilian design are employed that are characterized by a magnetic levitation system used in place of bearings. (Web: www.spectrum.ieee.org)
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
The General Electric Company is conducting research that promises to substantially reduce the capital cost of electrolysis equipment by applying an acid-resisting plastic (Noryl) and plastic-forming technology to the construction of hydrogen-producing cells. The electrodes (usually fabricated from platinum) have been replaced by a smaller area of spray-coated nickel-based catalyst that offers a large surface to the electrolyte.
The BMW company of Germany has announced it will begin serial production of dual-fuelled cars by 2008 based on gasoline or hydrogen consumed in spark ignition engines. To be available initially only on its 7-series executive car, it is the long-term intention of the company to extend this option to all its models.
Altair Nanotechnologies Inc. of Reno, Nevada, has announced it will begin road tests of its new lithium-ion batteries this year. The improved batteries of this type are expected to increase the range of electric vehicles on one charge to 320-400 km and provide greater safety and longer life spans. The recharging step is also expected to be reduced to some six to eight minutes.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for February 2006
New Reports
Discussion Paper: What is the Economics of Climate Change?
In the U.K. a major review of the economics of climate change was announced in July 2006 to be undertaken by Sir Nicholas Stern of Oxford which is to be reported to the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Prime Minister in the Fall of 2006. An interim discussion paper with the above title was released for comment at the end of January 2006. These comments should be made before 17 March 2006 to the Stern Review Team at the Treasury.
The Discussion Paper deals with the subject in three parts: (1) The Science and the International Response; (2) Key Challenges for the Economics of Climate Change; and (3) Creating and Sustaining International Collective Action. The situation with respect to these headings are first summarized and then key questions posed. The Executive Summary lists the following principal statements: Climate change is a serious and urgent Issue; The problem is global in its cause and consequences; The economic challenges are complex; The current pathway of emissions is unsustainable; Climate change itself may impede growth and development; We can still take action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change; Effective action requires an understanding of how mitigation may affect economic growth; A combination of policies, institutions and changes in preference will be needed; The private sector will respond if governments set clear, long-term and credible incentives; Uncertainties and irreversibilities permeate the story; climate change requires an international response; Incentives need to be in place to support action in fast-growing developing countries; and An equitable international response to climate change must include action on both adaptation and mitigation. (Web: www.sternreview.org.uk)
Energy for the Coming Decades: Trends and Technologies
This lecture was presented by Steven E. Koonin, Chief Scientist of BP plc, at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in September of 2005. As a physicist, Dr. Koonin approaches the subject, as he puts it, from `first principles, quantitative, analytic, descriptive.’ He sees the problem in terms of Demand Growth and Supply Challenges complicated by Environmental factors and Security concerns. The
document available on the web consists of over forty projection slides. He considers first the consequences of GDP and population growth (world of 8.9 billion in 2050), urbanization (especially the income dependency of mobility), and demand management (noting that greater efficiency through the development of technology may not necessarily reduce demand). On the supply challenges, he deals with the significant resources, infrastructure needs and non-conventional energy supplies. Interestingly, he believes both the geological peak oil approach and the economists’ views are correct in their separate spheres. On the question of security, he notes the growing dependence upon imports in the case of the U.S.A. and most other developed countries, and the growing competition for access to supplies from the resource-rich nations. On the need for measures to protect the environment, he draws a distinction between local pollution and climate change. There is an important future for the capture and sequestering of carbon dioxide. (Web: lfee.mit.edu)
Monthly Indicators publication of CIBC World Markets of Toronto
The Monthly Indicators published by CIBC World Markets dated 9 January 2006 includes a frontispiece by Jeffrey Rubin setting out the importance of the oil sands of Alberta in which he states `there are no greater reserves accessible to private investment that the Canadian oil sands.’ He expects oil prices to rise over $70/ barrel in 2006 and to as much as $100/barrel in 2007 mainly on the grounds that `over 60% of the 3.6 million barrels of new production that will come on stream in 2006 will not support demand growth but simply offset the loss from depletion of existing fileds.’ He amplifies these views in an article coauthored with Peter Buchanan appearing in the same publication which includes a comprehensive list of new capacity coming on stream in 2006 around the world. (Web: www.cibcwm.com/research)
Short Notes
- Two new newletters are now being circulated by member groups of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO). The
U.S committee now publishes a short weekly report in .pdf format and the Netherlands group has begun another on a quarterly basis. These are in addition to the continuing monthly Newsletter published by Dr. C. J. Campbell from Ireland which, as of February 2006, is now in its sixty-second edition. (Web: www.aspo-usa.com; www.peakoil.nl; and www.peakoil.ie)
- The Transportation Committee of the City of Burnaby (B.C.) has commissioned a report Global Peak in Oil Production: The Municipal Context” published in January 2006 which covers the subject well succinctly and includes useful graphs. (Web: burnaby.fileprosite.com)
- The London newspaper The Independent reported on 11 February 2006 that research it had commissioned has found that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has crossed a critical threshold beyond which dangerous climate change cannot be avoided. The danger point was set at the concentration that causes a two degree Centigrade rise in the global mean temperature; the carbon dioxide equivalent content for 2004 was 425 ppm which will likely make this increase inevitable.
- The generation of 2.75 gross petawatts of electricity in nuclear reactors around the world in 2005 slightly exceeded the previous record set in 2004. A new 1000 MW unit came into service in South Korea during last year. This and other additional output was enough to offset the slight decline from the 103 units operating in the U.S., which is the largest nuclear generator.
- The Global Wind Energy Council reported that in 2005 11,769 MW of capacity was installed in 2005 an increase of 43.4% over the additions in the previous year. The total installed wind power capacity around the world at the end of 2005 is 59,322 MW, an increase of 25% as compared to 2004. By 2014, world capacity is expected to increase to 210,000 MW. Germany has the largest installed capacity at 18,428 MW which will rise to 25,000 MW by 2010. Denmark generates the greatest share of its electricity from wind at just over than 20%.
- Significant progress in the extraction of geothermal energy from hot rocks is reported at a test installation at Soultz-sous-Forêts in France in a program supported by the European Union and a consortium of companies. Improved rock fracturing procedures have led to greater flows of the heat recovery medium, a saline solution, through the rock.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
Kiskuk Kang and other researchers at M.I.T. and the State University of New York (Stony Brook) have reported significant progress in developing a lithium-nickel-manganese battery of high power and storage capacity in the 17 February 2006 issue of the U.S. journal Science (Vol. 311, No. 5763, pp. 977-980). Computer studies had shown that disorder introduced under conditions of high power causes the conventional lithium compound to trap the lithium ions thus impairing the flow of electricity. The newly restructured compouind of these elements shows particular promise for application to plug-in hybrid vehicles. (Web: www.sciencemag.org)
A company in Peoria, Ill, Firefly Energy, has developed an improved lead battery based upon a graphite foam grid. The advantages of the new battery are lower cost than other advanced batteries, and lighter specific weight and longer service life than the traditional lead-based design. The new battery system is expected to compete with the nickel metal hydride batteries now used in hybrid vehicles and with the emerging light and powerful lithium-ion batteries.
- Westport Techologies of Vancouver will further develop its hydrogen injection system in cooperatioin with the Ford Motor Company and with support from the Government of Canada and the U.S. Department of Energy. The direct injection technique allows engines to be powered with hydrogen to provide both high power and torque with an efficiency comparable to diesel engines but with lower emissions. Such a fuel injection system allows the introduction of hydrogen into the transportation sector earlier than with fuel cells. Web: www.westport.com)
- Researchers at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, working with colleagues at the University of La Laguna in the Canary Islands, have discovered a new nanoscale material that improves the operation of fuel cell electrodes. Higher voltages have been obtained from such energy sources as natural gas or biogas.(Nature issue of 2 February 2006; Web: www.nature.com)
- The Mazda Company of Japan has announced its intention of introducing a dual-fuelled car powered by a rotary engine. The car will be able to operate on either gasoline or hydrogen as required.
- The BP Company is participating in two major proposals to generate electricity from hydrogen. In the case of the Scottish project at Peterhead north of Aberdeen, the hydrogen will be produced by the conventional reforming of natural gas with the captured carbon dioxide sequestered in enhanced recovery operations at the mature Miller off-shore oil field. In the case of the California proposal at Carson (south of Los Angeles) which is planned with the Edison International company to be in operation by 2011, the hydrogen will be produced by gasifying petroleum coke and used for generation at the 500 MWe scale. The captured carbon dioxide will also be sequestered in local enhanced recovery operations.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for January 2006
New Reports
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
This report is the formal record of a conference hosted by the U.K. Meteorological Office in February of 2005 and confirms the findings made public at that time. This conference addressed two questions: the setting of the quantitative level of dangerous emissions that should not be exceeded and the identification of the main options for dealing with the situation. The authors agree that the increase in world temperature should be kept below the two degrees Centigrade target set by the European Union but even this level may be too high to avoid some irreversible consequences such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. To achieve this limit, the concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent in the atmosphere should be stabilized at no more than 450 ppm which is to be compared to the present level of about 380 ppm. Most observers, including Sir David King, the government’s chief science advisor, are pessimistic that concentrations can be kept below this limit noting that, on present trends, it will be reached in ten years. The options recommended to deal with the situation were the usual combination of increasing the efficiency with which energy is consumed, aggressive development of renewable options, and the adoption of the new clean coal processes. (Web: www.met-office.gov.uk)
Intelligent Infrastructure Futures for the U.K.
This report was commissioned by the Foresight Programme of the Office of Science and Technology. With the transport sector heavily dependent on oil for about 90% of its energy requirements and the market for oil products now increasingly focused on meeting this need (some 70% in typical developed countries), the set of scenarios developed for the situation in the U.K. is of wide interest. In this sense it may be regarded as complimentary to peak oil supply studies. Nearly 300 experts participated in the development of the scenarios considered which illuminate the strategic choices that the UK faces in the transportation infrastructure field, along with most other societies. The study is noteworthy in its emphasis on the important role the new information technologies will play in this field in the future.
This extensive report may be downloaded in sections in .pdf format. (Web: www.foresight.gov.uk)
Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics
The Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) for the First Quarter of 2006 contains a lead article by a legal expert, Dena E. Wiggins, titled The Shifting Sands of U.S. Legislative and Regulatory Policy: Implications for Natural Gas Suppliers from Foreign Sources. In other papers, Kenneth R. Zimmerman writes on The Energy Crises and the Corporate Way of Life: Can Energy Corporations Meet the Need for Workable, Fair, and Comprehensive Solutions to Energy Issues?; Douglas B. Reynolds on Wolf as in wolf at the door; and Peck Yean Gan on an Econometric Study on an Energy Strategy for Malaysia to the Year 2030 – Focusing on the Impacts of Renewable Energy-based Power Generation.
The Newsletter may be obtained from the IAEE at 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. (Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
Short Notes
- The content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere measured at the Mauna Loa monitoring station in Hawaii increased 2.2 ppmv in the first ten months of 2005 as compared to 2 ppmv in each of 2002 and 2003. There is now concern that this level is accelerating with major implications for climate change.
- James E. Hansen of NASA has reported that revised calculations place 2005 as the warmest year ever notwithstanding there was no El Niño. The previous record was in 1998.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for December 2005
New Reports
Ontario Power Authority Report `Supply Mix Advice and Recommendations’
The Ontario Power Authority was established by the Ontario Government to provide a long-term strategy for the province’s future energy supply. This study was requested by the provincial Minister of Energy on 2 May 2005 to give advice on the appropriate mix of electrical supply sources until 2025. The report Power System Planning: Supply Mix and Recommendations was released on 9 December 2005 with its 1,100 pages arranged in five volumes: Vol.1 – Advice and Recommendations; Vol. 2 - Analysis Report; Vol. 3 – Background Reports; Vol. 4 – Consulting Reports; and Vol.5 - Submissions and Presentations Received.
The immediate problem is related to the decision of the government to phase-out all generation based upon coal by 2009 which is complicated by the retirements of the older nuclear facilities soon after. The combination of demand growth and these generation retirements leads to a gap of about 24 gigawatts by 2025, equivalent to approximately 80% of Ontario’s current capacity. The report recommends the creation of a conservation culture on the demand side and an investment in the $40 billion range for new nuclear reactors and about $30 billion in the renewable technologies especially wind generation. The report anticipates growing imports of hydropower.
The Supply Mix Summary and the five individual volumes may be downloaded separately from the Web at www.powerauthority.on.ca.
An Introduction to Climate Change
Environment Canada has produced a glossy publication An Introduction to Climate Change – A Canadian Perspective (ISBN 0-662-41247-8) by Henry Hengeveld, Bob Whitewood and Angus Ferguson. Dated October 2005, this report of 55 pages replaces an earlier publication of the same character. The updated document contains many useful figures and charts organized into six chapters titled respectively: Earth’s Natural Climate; Enhancing the Greenhouse Effect; Predicting Climates; A Warmer World; A Warmer Canada; and How Do We Respond?
This publication may be downloaded at www.msc.ec.gc.ca/
education/scienceofclimatechange and a hard copy may be obtained without charge from the Science Assessment and Integration Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Downsview, Ontario, M3H 5T4.
Short Notes
- NASA has announced that 2005 was tied with 1998 (a strong El Niño year) for the hottest year on record since reliable records started in the late 1800s.
- Researchers at the National Oceanography Centre in England have found that the flow of the Gulf Stream has slowed by about 30 percent between 1957 and 2004 likely due to climate change effects. The reduction in heat flow carried by this warmer water north is expected to have `profound implications for climate change.’ Despite its size, this large reduction has yet to result in lower temperatures in Western Europe. The results were reported by Harry L. Bryden, Hannah R. Longworth and Stuart A Cunningham in the U.K. journal Nature, Vol. 438, 655-657 (1 December 2005). It is noteworthy that this important paper was first submitted for publication on 8 April 2005 suggesting there has been a rigorous period of review.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for November 2005
New Reports
Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability 2005-2007
At a time of increasing concern over the supply of natural gas when its price on leading energy markets on a contained energy basis is higher than that of crude oil, the National Energy Board has released another in its series of Energy Market Assessment Reports. The Board expects average annual Canadian gas deliverability to increase a modest 2.3% to 491 cubic metres per day (6.31 trillion cubic feet/year) in 2007 from the 478 million cubic metres per day (6.17 Tcf/year) produced in 2004. Were it not for increasing non-conventional supply from coalbed methane (CBM) sources, production would decline to 467 million cubic metres/day (6.02 Tcf/year). The Board cautions that the short-term deliverability is highly dependent upon aggressive action by the drilling industry. It also notes the growing importance of the emerging CBM source. The present supply is derived from favourable dry coal sources in south-central Alberta. It remains to be seen whether the very large resource known to exist in wet coal seams but which requires recirculation of large quantities of water can be accessed in an environmentally acceptable manner.
The report dated October 2005 (ISBN 0-662-41791-7), with its many useful graphs and charts, may be obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8 or downloaded at www.neb-one.gc.ca (Fax: (403) 292-5576; Toll-free phone: 1-800-899-1265).
A Sustainable Energy Future – The Role of Natural Gas
The Canadian Gas Association, an organization supported by those interested in the use of natural gas, has produced a policy document that reviews the role of gas in Canada’s energy future. The report begins by noting that `Canada’s energy landscape is changing very quickly – probably more so than at any time in our history.’ It provides an overview of the situation including many figure and graphs from the point of view of this convenient fuel in the energy economy. Eight main policy recommendations are identified ranging from `Energy policies must recognize the connectivity of the energy system not just individual elements’ to `Tax treatment in Canada should be internationally competitive, designed to encourage capital investment and innovation in the natural gas supply, delivery and end use equipment industries.’ It does not, however, deal with the extreme supply and price events that occurred during the latter half of 2005. Copies of this report of twenty-six pages may be downloaded in .pdf form at www.cga.ca.
Short Notes
- Canada’s third off-shore oil field began production in Newfoundland waters on 14 November 2005 following the earlier Hibernia (fixed platform) and the Terra Nova (floating platform) fields. The White Rose floating platform is expected to reach an output of 100,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2006.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
Alistair Miller and R.B. Duffey of Atomic Energy of Canada have presented a paper entitled Large-Scale Co-Production of Hydrogen and Electricity from Wind and Nuclear Sources to the 55th Canadian Chemical Engineering Conference held in Toronto 16-19 October 2005. In it they introduce the NuWind process in which nuclear reactors are paired with wind turbines to generate electricity for hydrogen production by electrolysis. This combination overcomes the disadvantage of the inherent variability of wind generation and leads to high utilization of the capital-intensive facilities. It is claimed that the goal set by the U.S. Department of Energy of $US 2-3/kilogram for hydrogen production by 2015 can be met in this way.
Work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has lead to improvements to lithium-based batteries of high power density. The new firm of A123 Systems of Watertown, MA has been formed to exploit these advances which focus on new techniques to dope lithium iron phosphate to increase its capacity to handle high current flows. The first commercial application of these more powerful batteries with good re-charging characteristics will be to portable tools such as drills and saws but their use in hybrid vehicles is contemplated.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for October 2005
New Reports
Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics
The Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) for the Fourth Quarter of 2005 contains a comprehensive lead article by Donald Ian Hertzmark and Amy Meyers Jaffe dealing with the Iraq National Oil Company Case Study which is particularly timely. In other papers, Gerald T. Westbrook writes on The Skeptics on the Global Warming Issue: The Distinguished Veterans; Erdem Catak and Omowumi O. Hedare on Natural Gas Supply Diversification in Europe – Role of Turkey as a Transit Country which includes useful maps; and Hadi Hallouche on Natural Gas in the Mediterrranean: A Note for the Barcelona Process 10th Anniversry.This issue also includes an obituary of the late G. Campbell Watkins (1939-2005) by Professor André Plourde of the University of Alberta in tribute to a distinguished economist who has made a significant contribution to the Canadian and world energy scenes.
The Newsletter may be obtained from the IAEE at 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. (Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
National Energy Board Report on Natural Gas
The National Energy Board has released another in its series of Energy Market Assessment reports entitled Short-term Outlook for Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids to 2006 on 6 October 2005. The Board notes that natural gas prices continue to be strongly influenced by the current high prices for crude oil and `should generally fall in the price range set by residual fuel oil and No.2 heating oil.’ The deliverability of conventional gas from the largest producing Province – Alberta – is expected to decline over the projection period. The increasing demand for natural gas for needed for expanding oil sands operations and as a fuel for the generation of electricity has also stressed the situation. Limited growth is expected in the supply of natural gas liquids in part because the high price of natural gas relative to oil discourages the extraction of NGLs. In sum, the Board expects high and variable gas prices, particularly if the winter heating season is colder than normal.
Copies of the report may be obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8. (Fax: (403) 292-5576, E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca). reports
Short Notes
- The Goddard Institute for Space Studies has reported that 2005 will likely prove the hottest year on record, continuing a 25-year trend of rising global temperatures.
- Two moth-balled reactors at the private Bruce Power generating station near Kincardine, Ontario, will be restored to service in 2009 in a special agreement reached between the government of Ontario and the company which will invest $4.25 billion in this project. The company will refurbish these CANDU units which have been idle for ten years in return for a guarantee of 6.3 cents/kWH, the reimbursement of 50% of any cost overruns above a certain threshold, and adjustments to the annual lease. Two older reactors at the Pickering nuclear plant will not be rehabilitated.
- The Government of Ontario plans to mandate the addition of five per cent ethanol to gasoline by 2007 with an increase to ten per cent by 2010. Most of this alcohol will be produced from corn.
- The Federal government has announced a further $6.7 million in funding for the International Institute for Sustainable Development based in Winnipeg which will be devoted to a number of activities including the support of technologies that address climate change.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
Several Canadian companies have joined in the $18.3 million Integrated Waste Hydrogen Utilization Project in B.C. in which hydrogen available as a by-product from a sodium chlorate electrolysis plant will be applied to mobile and stationary applications of this green fuel. Supported by funds from the Sustainable Development Technology Canada and augmented by other Federal programs, the program will cover the full hydrogen value chain including capture, storage, and delivery. Eight light-duty trucks will be converted to use hydrogen as the fuel.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for September 2005
New Reports
Oil Production Outlook 2005-2040 from Netherlands Peak Oil Foundation
Rembrandt H.E.M. Koppelaar of the Netherlands Peak Oil Foundation has published a draft Oil Production Outlook 2005-2040 dated 6 September 2005. This is a flow-type study similar in principle to two others of special interest at the present time – those authored by Chris Skrebowski of the Oil Development Analysis Center (ODAC) and the proprietary study by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) both of which were released earlier this year. These bottom-up studies are characterized by an estimate of future near-term production obtained by summing the projects known to be underway around the world. The appendices to the Dutch study provide a detailed list of the new production expected in terms of total liquids. It thus includes new non-conventional oil supply including that from the oil sands of Alberta.
The production is estimated as the sum of four quantities: new discovery increase; existing base increase; enhanced recovery increase; and a negative quantity, estimated depletion. A peak of 94.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) is predicted in 2013 but the increase from the end of 2008 to the end of 2013 is placed at only 2.6 mb/d. This result may be compared with the peak predicted by Skrebowski in 2008 whereas the CERA report sees none until the third or fourth decade of this century and even then an undulating plateau is expected after that time rather than a peak. The Dutch report estimates oil production will increase about 10 mb/d between 2004 and 2010 whereas the CERA study places this quantity `as much as 16mb/d’ over the same period of time. The detailed information and reporting framework provided in the Koppelaar study makes it possible to track this difference back to the sources as the years pass. It notes that the peak production of light crude may have already occurred and goes on to state `An often heard comment is that if Saudi Arabia peaks the world will peak in world oil production. Given the amounts of projects still coming on stream, this scenario is almost impossible given observed gross decline rates of between 5 and 12%.’
Mr Koppelaar invites comments to be sent to contact@peakoil.nl on this draft of 39 pages which is mounted on the Web in .pdf form. (Web: www.peakoil.nl; www.odac-info.org; and www.cera.com)
National Energy Board Report `Short-term Outlook for Canadian Crude Oil to 2006’
This report from the National Energy Board is another in the Energy Market Assessment series issued periodically over the years. It is particularly timely in view of the present conditions in the market for oil. The report summarizes trends in prices including light/heavy oil differentials and changes in the US/Canada currency relationship; in drilling and exploration activity, in domestic production by category of sources; in the nation’s crude oil trade balance; and surveys current pipeline and refining activities. As usual, several maps and graphs illustrate the text. It is interesting that the report includes reference to the first substantial oil exploration activities in Quebec.
Copies of the `Outlook’ (ISBN 0-662-41182-X) may be obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8. (Web: www.neb-one.gc.ca; Fax: 403-292-5576; E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca)
IEA Greenhouse Gas R and D Programme Annual Report
The Annual Report for 2004 of the IEA Greenhouse Gas R and D Programme for 2004 is now available on the Web as a .pdf document of 30 pages. This report provides a convenient way of following progress in this increasingly important field in that it lists the publications of the year, presentations made to important meetings, and the names and contact points of the representatives from the 16 countries, the European Commission and its 10 industrial sponsors that participate in the Programme. It also reviews progress on industrial scale applications now beginning around the world. The prime purpose of the Programme is to provide objective technical information on the capture and sequestering processes as they evolve. The strategy for the current phase of studies is described under four themes: evaluation of technology options; improving key mitigation technologies; the implementation of mitigation technologies; and improving the understanding of mitigation technologies. A companion newsletter Greenhouse Issues is also available at the website four times a year which provides brief accounts of progress in important developments such as the recently announced first industrial scale project to generate carbon-free electricity from hydrogen which is located in Scotland: the carbon dioxide separated from the natural gas consumed will be used for the enhanced recovery of oil from a mature off-shore field.
The IEA Greenhouse Gas R and D Programme may be reached at the Orchard Business Centre, Stoke Orchard, Cheltenham, Gloucester, U.K. GL52 7RZ (Fax: +44 (0) 1242 680758; E-Mail mail@ieaghg.org). The Programme maintains two Websites: the general site may be found at www.ieagreen.org.uk and an information site at www.co2captureandstorage.info.
IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
The Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) was approved at the Eighth Session of Working Group III of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change held in Montreal on 25 September 2005. The IPCC considers CCS as an option in the portfolio of mitigation actions for the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. This report is now available on the Web. The Summary for Policymakers is useful in that it consists of a number of relevant questions with their answers. The main questions were: What is CCS and how could it contribute to mitigating climate change? What are the characteristics of CCS? What is the current status of CCS technology? What is the geographical relationship between the sources and storage opportunities for carbon dioxide? What are the costs for CCS and what is the technical and economic potential? What are the local health, safety and environment risks of CCS? Will physical leakage of stored carbon dioxide compromise CCS as a climate change mitigation option? What are the legal and regulatory issues for implementing carbon dioxide storage? What are the implications of CCS for emission inventories and accounting? and What are the gaps in knowledge? Subsiduary questions were then posed under these headings together with succinct replies. Cost estimates were evidently drawn mainly from the work of the IEA Greenhouse Gas R and D Programme (Web: www.ipcc.ch)
Short Notes
- British Gas has announced a trial agreement with the Windsave Company to offer householders micro wind turbines in selected regions of the country that would feed power directly into the electrical circuit. It is expected that individual electrical bills could be reduced up to a third and carbon dioxide emissions by half a tonne per year.
- The largest solar-electric installation to date is planned for the southern Portugese town of Moura. The capacity will be 62 MW obtained from 350,000 separate solar panels. The investment is given as 250 million Euros with construction to begin in 2006.
- A team led by Professor Peter Stansby and Dr Alan Williamson at the
University of Manchester has developed a robust `bobbing’ device to generate electricity from ocean waves. Its advantages over other developments in this field include a design whereby the mechanical and electrical components are housed in a protected environment well above sea level, and that the device can respond to waves coming from any direction. (Web: www.man.ac.uk/press/)
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
Based upon research conducted at the Technical University of Denmark,
Amminex A/S, has developed a hydrogen carrier for vehicles equipped with fuel cells that meets the U.S. Department of Energy’s targets for 2015. It is claimed that a gravimetric density of 9.1 % hydrogen (US/DOE goal is 9.0%) can be achieved in a reversible manner with fast kinetics in a material fabricated from inexpensive materials. Ammonia is absorbed in what is termed `sea-salt’ and is decomposed over a catalyst as hydrogen is required.(Web: www.amminex.com)
- The Toshiba Company of Japan has announced it will market small methanol fuel cells aimed at the portable electronics market starting in 2007.
- A Canadian Company, Innovative Hydrogen Solutions, has developed a compact electrolyzer to be mounted in the engine compartment of cars and trucks which is powered by the battery to provide a stream of hydrogen for introduction into the engine manifold along with the conventional fuel. A gain of fuel efficiency in the 10 - 40% range is claimed along with a substantial reduction in emissions. The company plans to begin offering these units in 2006.
- Atlantic Hydrogen Inc. of Fredericton, N.B. and its partners have received a $ 2 million contribution from Sustainable Development Technology Canada to develop and demonstrate the production of hydrogen from natural gas with the contained carbon rejected as a solid. A hydrogen-rich natural gas will be used fuel internal combustion engines to generate electricity.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for August 2005
U.S. Energy Bill Signed into Law
In the U.S., President George W. Bush signed an energy bill into law that had been one of his administration’s priorities since 2001.at a ceremony held at the Sandia National Laboratory in New Mexico on 8 August 2005. This major piece of legislation with its new expenditures of $US 14.5 billion passed through the Congress only with much difficulty. It contains a myriad of measures mostly to encourage the supply of the conventional energy options (including efforts to develop a new generation of nuclear power technology) though it does provide incentives for alternative energy sources such as wind and ethanol, and additional support for research into hydrogen-powered vehicles. There is also support for advanced coal-using technologies and it creates federal risk insurance for new nuclear facilities. There are incentives for oil companies to expand their refining capacity, and additional tax credits aimed at energy conservation and higher enegy efficiency though the latter measures cannot be said to be the Bill’s main thrust. The Bill itself does not approve drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska (which may be approved separately) nor does it mandate improvements to vehicle fuel efficiency. Among its many measures is a four-week extension of Daylight Savings Time to start in 2007.
New Reports
Economic Instruments for Long-term Reductions in Energy-based Carbon Emissions
In this report issued in August of 2005, the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy explored scenarios in which economic instruments were employed to promote long-term (25-year) reductions in energy-based carbon emissions. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of the tools that could be used to support technologies with the potential to reduce emissions on both the demand and supply sides of the energy equation at three different stages of their development: mature, emerging, and longer-term new technologies. In framing their findings and recommendations, the Round Table drew not only on these case studies but also from the consultations conducted as part of the process. The Recommendations focused on the answer to the three following questions: What role can economic instruments play in reducing energy-based carbon emissions in Canada over the next quarter century? What are the constraints that will determine the design and application of such instruments? and How can the nation undertake a coordinated transition toward a lower emission energy system. The eight recommendations range from the adoption of a broad-based price signal to a number of very specific proposals including a national system for trading Renewable Energy Certificates which would be combined with a federally-funded renewable generation subsidy covering a range of emerging technologies.
Copies of this report, its executive summary, and other components may be downloaded at www.nrtee-trnee.ca or obtained from the Round Table at 344 Slater Street, Suite 200, Ottawa, Ontario, K1R 7Y3 (Fax: (613) 992-7385). The full report has been published by Renouf Publishing Company Ltd., 5369 Canotek Road, Unit 1, Ottawa, Ontario K1J 9J3. (Web: www.renoufbooks.com; Fax: (613) 745-7660)
National Energy Board Report on `Canadian Hydrocarbon Transportation System: Transportation Assessment’
The National Energy Board has published this report that focuses on the functioning of the Canadian transportation system. The assessment was made using the following criteria: Is there adequate capacity in place?; Do pipeline companies provide services that meet the needs of shippers?; and Do pipeline companies have sufficient financial strength to attract capital to maintain their systems and build new infrastructure to meet the needs of the market? The Board concluded that there is adequate capacity for both the oil and natural gas pipeline systems. Some emerging issues were also identified in the report. Copies of this report may be downloaded from the NEB at www.neb-one.gc.ca.
Short Notes
- Three papers published in sequence in the online version of the U.S. journal Science on 12 August 2005 by Benjamin D. Santor et al (Science 2005 0:11148671), Carl A Mears and Frank J. Wentz (Science 2005 0:11147721), and Steven Sherwood et al (Science 0:11156401) effectively resolve a long-standing problem in climate modeling. Whereas surface thermometers have clearly demonstrated global warming was taking place as predicted, satellite and weather ballon data did not support this conclusion. This discrepancy has been shown to be due mainly to instrumental problems and now may be considered resolved. The effect is to remove one of the last inconsistencies between the actual measurements and the warming predictions of the climate models. (Web:www.sciencemag.org)
- The Federal government through the Technology Partnerships Canada program administered by Industry Canada has invested $2.3 million in Magellan Aerospace Corporation of Mississauga to further develop a turbine fuelled with bio-oil. This company claims to be the first in the world to successfully burn bio-oil in a commercial-scale gas turbine-powered electrical generator.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (US) (Vol. 102, No.30, 26 July 2005), authors at the National Research Council (S. Patchkovskii. John S. Tse –now at the University of Saskatchewan, S.N. Yurchenko) together with three colleagues from the Technical University of Dresden in Germany have developed a new method of layering graphite that could safely store hydrogen for vehicles equipped with fuel cells. It has so far proved difficult to meet the goals of 6.5% mass ratio and 62 kg per cubic metre set by the U.S. Department of Energy but these may be met by optimizing the structures of nano-graphite platelets (graphene) which are light-weight, cheap, chemically inert, and environmentally benign.
- A Texas company, Valence Technologies, has reported the development of a lithium ion battery that is claimed safer than those that depend upon cobalt oxide. Lithium battery systems are more energy-dense than the nickel metal hydride batteries used in most hybrid and electric cars.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for July 2005
New Reports
Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics
The Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) for the Third Quarter of 2005 contains a comprehensive article by Paul de Zardain entitled The Barents Sea: Strategic Options for Oil Exports in Russia’s Northwest complete with interesting maps and discussion of the possibilities for seaborne transport in Arctic Waters. Ali Hussain writes on Factors Behind the Recent Increase in International Oil Prices, James P. Dorian, Herman T. Franssen and Dale R. Simbeck on Global Challenges in Energy, and Matthew T. Siniawski on The Tribological Role of Energy Efficiency Within Society.
The Newsletter may be obtained from the IAEE at 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. (Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
Short Notes
- It was announced on 6 July 2005 that $46 million has been provided from the Ethanol Expansion Program of the Government of Canada for the Second Round of the expansion of this liquid fuels industry. Five plants will be built in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario in addition to the six which have already received $72 million in the First Round. The industry share of this combined investment is close to one billion dollars. All are based upon grain as the feedstock. The Federal target is to have 35 percent of all gasoline contain a blend of 10 percent ethanol by 2010. The projects in Ontario will increase its ethanol production to nearly 800 million litres per year which is approximately that required to meet the Province’s stated objective of providing an average five percent ethanol in gasoline by 2007. There is continued interest in the production of ethanol from cellulose derived from surplus agricultural and forestry sources. The production of ethanol from grain remains controversial on net energy and carbon dioxide emissions grounds as exemplified by the regularly updated review Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle by Tad W. Patzek at the University of Calfornia - Berkeley originally published in the journal Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences in 2004, 23 (6) 519-567. (Web: petroleum.Berkeley.edu/papers/patzek/CRPS416-Patzek-Web.pdf)
- The first large-scale power plant (350 MWe) to capture carbon dioxide is planned for service in Scotland in 2009 by a group consisting of BP plc, Royal Dutch/Shell, ConocoPhillips and Scottish and Southern Energy plc. Natural gas will be reformed into hydrogen and carbon dioxide, and the electrical energy generated from the hydrogen. The carbon dioxide will be piped to the Miller off-shore field for the enhanced recovery of the remaining of oil. This field would otherwise close in 2006/7. The greenhouse gas would be sequestered in the reservoir as a result of this action. In Germany, the Vattenfall company has announced its intention of building a 30 MWe lignite-based power plant which will use oxygen for combustion to allow capture of the carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide would be sequestered in a saline reservoir.
- Studies of the wind resource available at 8,000 locations around the world at the 10 metre level conducted at Stanford University lead to the conclusion that sufficient energy exists in this form to meet the world’s requirements for electricity.
- Peer-reviewed work at Purdue University by Yiban Xu and Adam Butt published in the May 2005 issue of Nuclear Engineering and Design have confirmed earlier experiments that fusion as represented by the emissions of neutrons in the expected energy range and the production of tritium have resulted from the bench-scale cavitation of deuterated acetone with ultrasound.
- The Federal Government has modified its mortgage loan insurance program administered by Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation to encourage more energy efficient housing and to make it consistent with provincial initiatives in the field. A ten percent refund on CMHC’s mortgage insurance premiums will be made when a qualifying home is bought or built.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
A short review of the potential for plug-in hydrid vehicles has appeared in the July 2005 issue of Spectrum Vol. 42, No. 7 titled Take This Car and Plug It. Recent studies have indicated that such vehicles could lead to a 50% reduction in petroleum consumption provided the battery storage capacity was sufficient for the car to travel 32 km in the electrical mode before the engine was activated. In essence, many commuting and short trips around town could be conducted entirely in electrical mode at low marginal cost. The low cost for electrical operation must, however, be balanced against the extra costs arising from the additional battery capacity required and the loss in efficiency resulting from the greater weight of the vehicle. A California company is now actively offering a conversion kit applicable to one hybrid model already in production and is in discussions with other auto manufacturers. There may be special advantages for such vehicles under Canadian conditions such a pre-warming electrically before use in cold weather. (Web: www.spectrum.ieee.org)
A small New York company, Signa Chemistry, has found a safe way to provide hydrogen to small fuel cells by reacting water with sodium held in silica gel or crystalline silicon.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for June 2005
New Reports
Outlook for Electricity Markets 2005–2006
This report from the National Energy Board, dated June 2005, is another in the series of Energy Market Assessments undertaken as part of its regulatory mandate. Surveys and discussions with stakeholders had revealed the need for a more short-range outlook than that provided in previous studies of the electrical system. This report examines the situation in each province in turn and provides many useful graphs and tables. It notes the striking differences in the electrical sector of the energy economy across the country.
The main conclusion is that the electrical supply is adequate for all regions during the 2005-2006 period, but tight supply conditions could emerge as early as 2007. The Board also believes that upward pressures are to be expected on prices throughout this period and that further interprovincial transfers of energy should be explored to relieve the situation. The Board acknowledges the growing importance of renewable sources of energy. The lack of clear price signals inhibit the adoption of successful demand management programs to foster energy conservation and the more efficient use of energy. The Board is also concerned that uncertainty could delay the timely investment and development of new supply infrastructure.
Copies of this report of 90 pages (ISBN 0-662-40520-X) may be
downloaded from the Web at www.neb-one.gc.ca or obtained by mail from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta T2P 0X8. (Toll Free: 1-800-899-1265; Fax: (403) 292-5576; E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca)
Short Notes
- Saskatchewan Power intends to build its planned new coal-generating station located some 180 km south of Regina “capture ready” in preparation for the time when carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced. This will be done by providing the space, the extra boiler capacity, and the added ductwork required for the installation of the capture processes. The new station is expected to come into service in 2013 and remain in operation for several decades thereafter well into an era when it is probable such controls will be needed. A rival technology, integrated gasification combined-cycle generation, would require an entirely new process flowsheet.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
In May 2005. Purolator Courier Ltd., the largest such service in Canada, in conjunction with Azure Dynamics Corporation, announced the introduction of ten hybrid vehicles into trial service in the Toronto area. In the system employed, the vehicles are driven exclusively by electric motors and the batteries are re-charged from an on-board engine augmented by energy recovered by dynamic braking. This major test program of stop and go delivery truck operation in a major city has been supported by Technology Partnerships Canada and other funding sources. One other vehicle has been equipped with a hydrogen-powered fuel cell supplied by Hydrogenics Corporation. With success, it is expected this trial will be expanded to other cities.
A team from the University of Waterloo – the only Canadian entry – received top honours at a competition held in Detroit for their design of a fuel cell-powered vehicle. The competition focuses on the re-engineering of a General Motors cross-over sports utility vehicle. The team was supported by Natural Resources Canada, General Motors Canada and Hydrogenics Corporation of Mississauga.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for May 2005
New Reports
Building a Conservation Culture in Ontario
On 19 May 2005, the Government of Ontario released
Building a Conservation Culture, the report of the Conservation Action Team. The Team of twelve parliamentary assistants was established in January 2004 to seek out and promote the best conservation practices and ideas across Ontario, and to identify barriers to their implementation. The report contains some thirty recommendations arrived at after consultations with over 300 groups and individuals. These include the novel one of imbedding the concepts of conservation and sustainability throughout the school curriculum from kindergarten to Grade 12. (Web: www.energy.gov.on.ca).
Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply
This Master of Science Thesis presented to Uppsala University in Sweden by Bengt Söderbergh provides a broad overview of the oil sands industry with the aim of placing its development in context with studies of the world’s potential oil supply. It is interesting to read of this industry from the prospect of another country that does not produce oil. The resource base and the various technologies are assessed together with the need for natural gas and diluent. There is also a comprehensive listing of actual and proposed projects. The author notes that the expansion of production from the present about one million barrels per day to five to six million barrels per day by about 2030 is contradictory to national objectives as set out under the Kyoto Protocol. The Thesis (105 pages) may be downloaded in.pdf form at www.peakoil.com.
Short Notes
- On 17 May 2005, the Minister of Natural Resources, the Hon. R. John Efford, announced the establishment of a panel of independent experts to advise on Canada ‘s efforts and priorities in the field of sustainable energy science and technology. Current federal annual expenditures in this field are about $200 million. This panel will examine Canada’s current energy situation including its key technology strengths, and suggest the best mechanisms for partnerships with the provinces, territories, industry and academia, as well as internationally. Chaired by Dr. Angus Bruneau, with Dr. Denis Connor, John C. Fox, Professor David Keith, Patrick Lamarre, Jacques G. Martel, Ken McCready, Patrice Merrin Best and Laurier Schramm as members, this new advisory group will provide its recommendations in December 2005.
- The Government of New Zealand has announced its intention to introduce a carbon tax which will become effective in two years time as one of the measures being introduced to meet its commitments under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases. It is intended that the new tax, set at NZ$11 per metric tonne of carbon emitted, will be revenue neutral. It is expected to add some 6 % to household energy prices and 9 % to the costs of energy purchased by most businesses but most energy–intensive export-oriented industries will be exempt.
- An article in the on-line journal Slate posted by Chris Mooney on 23 May 2005 entitled
The Courthose Effect outlines the prospects for legal action against emittors of greenhouse gases. It concludes `If climate change continues unabated, a winning lawsuit may be only a matter of time.’ (Web: slate.msn.com/id/2119312/).
- Three scientists active in the development of the bench-scale cavitation for fusion frequently termed sonofusion – Richard T. Lahey Jr., Rusi P. Taleyarkhan and Robert I. Nigmatulin – have published an article describing the recent progress in this controversial activity in the IEEE Journal
Spectrum Vol. 42 No. 5 pp. 38-42 (May 2005). The paper gives a history of the efforts to date and an exposition of the theory involved. A Vancouver company, General Fusion Inc., is pursuing an approach that combines sononfusion and the more conventional laser intertial confinement technique. There are several groups now active in this field in the U.S. (Web: www.spectrum.ieee.org)
- Dr. Thomas Amidon and colleagues of the College of Environmental Science and Forestry at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Syracuse are developing an improved process for the production of ethanol from wood by the separation of the polysaccharide xylan from the cellulose by a membrane process. The cellulose may be used in normal paper markets and the sugar is fermented to produce the ethanol. Acetic acid in the wood may also be separated. Hardwoods contain about 35% xylan and northern softwoods about 9 to 14 %. Currently this sugar is not used but two such facilities based upon sulphite waste liquor operated for a time in Canada some decades ago.
- A Vancouver company, Fairchild International Corporation, through its control of Syngas Energy Corporation, has announced a new gasification process to produce synthetic natural gas derived from a variety of low-cost carbon-bearing sources such as coal, wood waste and other biomass sources.
- The first commercial-scale floating installation for the generation of electricity from ocean waves will go into service three miles off the northern coast of Portugal near Povoa de Varzim in 2006 at a cost of eight million Euros. Three pods designed by Ocean Power Delivery of Edinbugh, Scotland, will have an installed capacity 2.25 megawatts. The company has received a letter of intent to install another 30 machines subject to success with the first three units.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
A small British company, CMR Fuel Cells, claims an advance in fuel cell design involving a new fuel stack which mixes air with the fuel first and so results in a smaller unit size. The first cells to be produced will use methanol as the fuel and be directed to powering small loads such as laptop computers. Companies such as Shell Hydrogen, Johnson Matthey, and Mitsubishi Industries are supporting this development through a venture fund.
Researchers at Ohio State University, the University of Minnesota, and the Gas Technology Institute of Des Plaines, Illinois, are progressing with programs aimed at providing hydrogen to fuel cells designed to power vehicles derived from ethanol such as might be produced from corn or cellulosic materials. The
Gas Technology Institute has reported developing a reformer with this capability at the scale of 110 pounds of hydrogen per day with 70 to 80 per cent energy conversion efficiency. (Web: www.gastechnology.org)
Two recent papers published in Physical Review Letters on 22 April and 6 May typify the advances that are being made in the field of storage using small elements of carbon to hold hydrogen. In the first, by Anne Dillon et al, scandium mounted on the surface of tiny balls of carbon provide trapping defects to hold the hydrogen and in the second, by Taner Yildirim et al, titanium is used to the same end with nanotubes of carbon. Theoretical calculations suggest it will be quite feasible to provide a 500 km range for a typical vehicle powered by fuel cells.
Millenium Cell of Eatontown, N.J., a company now partly owned by Dow Chemical, has reported progress in its development of a system for providng hydrogen to fuel cells from sodium borohydride. This compound may be synthesized from borax. The hydrogen is released after passing this compound over a proprietary catalyst. The first market is expected to be the powering of portable computers. The system is a rival to the current efforts based upon methanol.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for April 2005
New Reports
Project Green: Moving Forward on Climate Change
On 13 April 2005, Environment Minister Stéphane Dion, Natural Resources Minister R. John Efford and Industry Minister David Emerson announced the next stage in the government’s efforts to meet the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol in the form of a 49-paged program document entitled Moving Forward on Climate Change (ISBN 0-662-68808-2). The previous 2005 Budget had provided funding for the Clean Fund (now renamed the Climate Fund) with a minimum funding of $ 1 billion; a Partnership Fund with $250 million to start and with expectations of an increase to $2-3 billion over the next decade, various expenditures to encourage Renewable Energy (which include $200 million for the Wind Power Production Incentive, $100 million for the Renewable Power Production Incentive and $300 million for tax incentives directed to efficient and renewable energy generation); and $ 2 billion for existing climate change programs.
The 2005 Climate Change Program is built on six elements: encouragement of competitive and sustainable industries for the 21st Century; harnessing market forces; including a Climate Fund for trading in international emissions reduction; partnership with the Provincial governments; programs to engage citizens; the development of sustainable agriculture and forest sectors of the economy; and programs for sustainable cities and communities. It is envisioned that the approaches outlined in the Plan could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 20 megatonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide annually in the 2008-2012 period. Overall Federal expenditures may reach $10 billion through to 2012. It is intended that some of these funds will be applied to hydroelectric generation and associated interprovincial transmission lines to help meet the power needs of Ontario as coal-based generation is phased-out in that Province. Special provisions are provided for the approximately 700 companies who are classed as Large Final Emitters (LFE) and who account for just under 50 per cent of the total emissions of GHG gases. Just 80-90 of these companies account for 85 per cent of the emissions in the LFE category. It is here that market mechanisms will be stressed to achieve significant reductions in such a manner that also contributes to the competitiveness of these industries. In the early days, it is likely Canada will need to purchase greenhouse gas emissions credits from other countries.
The new Plan sees meeting Canada’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol which came into force on 16 February 2005 as an opportunity to change to a new sustainable path for the future. The Annexes to the Plan set out the reductions expected in the various sectors in detail together with much statistical information. This document may be downloaded at www.climatechange.gc.ca in .pdf form (134KB).
Annual Report of the National Energy Board for 2004
The Annual Report of the National Energy Board for 2004 was released on 6 April 2005. With its many tables and maps, the report provides an interesting overview as usual of the Canadian energy scene for the year. The Report notes that the Canadian oil pipeline infrastructure is being strained to the limit and that generation reserve margins are declining in several electricity markets. Particular emphasis is placed on the preparations for the Mackenzie Gas Project though there is now some doubt that oral hearings can begin in 2005. Applications have now been received for several liquefied natural gas (LNG) reception terminals.
The energy industry accounted for about six per cent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product in 2004 and employed just over 300,000 people representing about 1.8 % per cent of the labour force. Total energy production increased by slightly more that two per cent in that year as compared to a small decline in 2003. Preliminary estimates indicate that domestic energy consumption increased only by nearly one per cent in 2004 indicating that the long term decline in the energy intensity of the economy in continuing. With the high prices experienced during the year, there was a record level of activity as measured by the active drilling rig count and the number of wells drilled. Canadian oil production reached a new record for the year though conventional production continued to fall in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. This loss was more than offset by the expanding production from the oil sands of Alberta. Canadian production of natural gas remained essentially constant reflecting the mature state of development of the WCSB. Electricity production fell slightly due to a two per cent fall in hydroelectric generation caused by the need to conserve water in some provinces. Nuclear generation increased 20% over the previous year as additional reactor capacity was returned to service in Ontario.
Copies of the Annual Report (ISBN 0-662-39110-1) may be obtained from the Board at 444 Seventh Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 0X8 or from the Web at www.neb-one.gc.ca in .pdf format. The eight Supplements may be downloaded separately from the main text. (Toll free fax: (403) 1-877-288-8803; E-Mail: publications@neb-one.gc.ca)
Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics
The Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) for the Second Quarter of 2005 contains a long article by Maureen S. Crandall entitled Realism on Caspian Energy: Over-Hyped and Under-Risked in which she concludes that the energy promise of this Central Asian region has been overstated and that its oil production will not make a major or lasting contribution to the world’s energy supply and its energy security. In other articles, Seth Blumsack and Lester B. Lave write on Mitigating Market Power in Deregulated Electricity Markets, William R. Edwards on Low Inventories or Stable Price? – You Can’t Have Both, Gbadebo Oladosu and Adam Rose on The Income Distribution Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policy, and Frits van Oostvoorn on Gas Supply Security in Europe in the Long Term: Some Key Issues.
The Newsletter may be obtained from the IAEE at 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. (Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
Crude Prices Will Almost Double Over the Next Five Years
This assessment is made in a short but pointed article of this title contained in the Monthly Indicators Report of CIBC World Markets Inc. by Jeffrey Rubin and Peter Buchanan. The CIBC economists base their conclusion on the price increase needed to restrain world oil demand by nearly nine million barrels per day to close the gap these authors identify between demand rising on a `business-as-usual’ basis and an exogenously-defined supply based upon the expansion plans of the world’s petroleum industry. An allowance of a loss of one million barrels a day per year is made for depletion and a minimum of one million barrels per day of spare capacity is assumed required to maintain the flexibility of the system. To achieve market clearance on this basis, the authors find crude oil prices will have to rise to an average $80/barrel in 2008 and continue to increase to $101/bbl by 2010. The report of four pages (including useful figures) may be downloaded in .pdf form from the Web at www.cibcwm.com/research.
Cost Benefit Analysis: Replacing Ontario’s Coal-Fired Electricity Generation
This cost benefit report was released on 27 April 2005 and prepared by DSS Management Consultants Inc. working with RWDI Air Inc. for the Ontario Ministry of Energy. The authors found a relationship between increased air pollution and up to 668 premature deaths, 928 hospital admissions, 1,100 emergency room visits and 333,660 minor illnesses such as headaches, coughing and other respiratory symptoms they attribute to the present coal-fired generation in the province. Four scenarios identified by the Ministry of Energy were assessed. Scenario 1 served as the Base Case where the coal-fired stations were kept operational under current regulations; in Scenario 2, the coal-based generation was assumed all replaced by natural gas-based facilities; in Scenario 3, a blend of nuclear and gas-fired generation was assumed ; and in Scenario 4, the coal was used but under the best available controls. The results indicate that Scenario 3 involving a blend of nuclear and natural gas-based generation had the lowest cost. The results are regarded as quite robust.
Copies of this report, which include the details of the methodology employed, may be found on the Web at www.energy.gov.on.ca.
Short Notes
- A Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Canada and the Canadian automotive industry was signed on 5 April 2005 under which the manufacturers voluntarily agree to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from light-duty new vehicles in Canada so that emissions reduction will reach 5.3 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2010 as compared to an agreed reference case. The Canadian industry will offer and promote a wide variety of fuel-saving technologies including hybrid power trains, cylinder deactivation technology, advanced diesel technology, automatic tire inflation, and other unspecified emerging technologies. While there will be no technical difference between the vehicles sold in Canada as compared to the U.S., Canadians have historically purchased smaller cars. A key component of this agreement is the joint industry-government monitoring of annual industry performance in relation to projected interim greenhouse gas reduction goals to ensure progress. The Federal government retains the option of legislation if the targets are not met but this is considered unlikely. The full text of the MOU may be downloaded in .pdf form at www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca.
- A new Research Chair will be established at the University of Waterloo with a grant of one million dollars over five years to develop innovative analysis tools and advanced methods for managing risk in the field of nuclear engineering. The Chair will be called the NSERC/UNENE (University Network of Excellence in Nuclear Engineering – an alliance of universities, nuclear power utilities, and research and regulatory agencies). The first incumbent will be Dr. Mahesh Pandey who has a background in probabilistic analysis and applied mechanics.
- Professor Seth Putterman and colleagues at the University of California at Los Angeles reported a fusion reaction in the UK Journal Nature Vol. 434,115-117 (28 April 2005) achieved in a bench-scale apparatus. In the UCLA experiment, a beam of charged deuterium atoms emitted from a heated crystal mounted in a strong electric field was directed to deuterium atoms in a target. The resulting fusion reaction released an isotope of helium along with neutrons. Though the amount of energy involved is miniscule, it is possible this form of fusion reaction could be used to provide energy for some special applications.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
Huen Lee and colleagues at the National Research Council and Korean organizations have reported on Tuning Clathrate Hydrates for Hydrogen Storage in Nature Vol. 434, No. 7034, p.743-746 (7 April 2005). By introducing water-soluble hydrate promoters and other techniques these authors have been able to achieve about four per cent hydrogen by weight content in binary clathrate hydrates stabilized with tetrahydrofuran at modest pressures. Such compounds may well open a new avenue for the storage of hydrogen on fuel cell-equipped vehicles. (Web: www.nature.com)
- Professor Brian Logan and colleagues at Pennsylvania State University have been able to produce hydrogen from waste streams such as would be derived from water treatment plants processed in microbial fuel cells by applying a voltage to the cells. The applied potential of about 0.25 volts is approximately one–tenth that needed for the electrolysis of water and leads to the production of some four times as much hydrogen as would be obtained from bacterial action alone. (Web: Newindpress.com)
- The Hydrogenics Corporation of Mississauga, Ontario, will lead a project to develop the first wind/hydrogen demonstration project in Canada at the site of the North Cap Wind Farm in Prince Edward Island. PEI now obtains about five per cent of its electricity from wind power. The $10.3 million project will be supported by funds from the Hydrogen Early Adopters Program (h2EA) of Technology Partnerships Canada, the Government of Prince Edward Island, and from other sources. A number of hydrogen activities will be demonstrated under this program including an hydrogen energy station and storage depot to support these activities.
(Web: www.hydrogenics.com)
Canadian Energy Up-Date for March 2005
New Reports
Alberta Potential for the Production of Conventional Natural Gas
The federal National Energy Board and the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board released a report on 9 March 2005 entitled Alberta’s Ultimate Potential for Conventional Natural Gas. The two Boards had signed a Memoradum of Understanding in 1994 to reach a Common Reserves Database Agreement but a joint assessment of the resources of conventional natural gas was not started until 2001. This document is the result of this first collaborative effort carried out in the largest producing province of this fuel.
For the Medium Case, the summary for Marketable Gas follows: Discovered – 4542 Billion cubic metres (161 Trillion cubic feet); Cumulative Production – 3438 BCM (122 TCF); Remaining Discovered – 1104 BCM (39 TCF); Undiscovered – 1734 BCM (62 TCF); Ultimate Potential – 6276 BCM (223 TCF); and for the Remaining Ultimate Potential (Remaining Discovered + Undiscovered Gas) – 2838 BCM (101 TCF). The results are broadly in line with expectations with the potential about seven per cent higher than the previous NEB estimate. The report numbered 2005-A and catalogued as ISBN 0-7785-3709-9 is available on the Web at www.neb-one.gc.ca or www.eub.gov.ab.ca.
Is the U.S. Economy Really Less Vulnerable to Energy Prices?
Jeffrey Rubin and his colleagues at CIBC World Markets have produced a succinct report of four pages including relevant graphs that addresses the question posed in the title. In Occasional Report #51 dated 25 February 2005, these authors demonstrate that, although the overall U.S. energy consumption per unit of GDP generated has fallen about fifty per cent over the last thirty years, it is misleading to suggest the economy of that nation has become less sensitive to increases in oil prices. The note examines three sectors of the energy economy: consumption in residences, in the transportation field, and in industry. In the first two categories, dependence upon energy is actually increasing whereas consumption by industry has only fallen because of the re-structuring resulting from the tendency to shift material production to other countries. (Web: www.cibcwm.com/research/)
Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management
This report authored by R.L. Hirsch, R.H. Bezdek, and R.M. Wendling was produced for the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy by Science Applications International Corporation. The situation is summarized in this way: ‘The problem of the peaking of world conventional oil production is unlike any yet faced by modern industrial society. The challenges and uncertainties need to be much better understood. Technologies exist to mitigate the problem. Timely, aggressive risk management will be essential.’
Three scenarios were developed to analyze this problem. In the first it was assumed that action is not initiated until peaking occurs; in the second, action is initiated ten years before peaking; and in the third, twenty years. The possible contribution of each mitigation option was then assessed within this framework. The main conclusions of this study were: the timing of the peaking of world oil production is not known with any certainty but even twenty years from now is `soon’; the problems associated with peaking will not be temporary and the experience gained from past difficulties in the energy system will provide only limited guidance for policymakers; oil peaking will create a severe problem for the supply of liquid fuels to the transportation sector but will not result in an `energy crisis’ as this subject is generally understood; peaking will result in much higher oil prices; the problems in the developed nations will be serious but even worse in the developing world; mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense and expensive effort; increased efficiency alone will not be sufficient and mitigation will require the production of large amounts of substitute liquid fuels; and finally intervention by governments will be necessary to avoid a chaotic situation from developing.
The authors of this report believe that the peaking of world conventional oil production presents a classic risk management problem in that mitigation initiated earlier that required may turn out to be premature if peaking is long delayed whereas failure to initiate timely mitigation could be extremely damaging if peaking is imminent.
The report may be found on the Web in .pdf format at www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf dated February 2005.
Retrofit of Carbon Dioxide Capture to Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plants (No. 2005/1). This report assesses the feasibility of retrofitting three different technologies to existing NGCC facilities: post-combustion amine scrubbing; pre-combustion reforming of natural gas with carbon dioxide capture; and pre-combustion coal gasification with carbon dioxide capture.
Building the Cost Curves for Carbon Dioxide Storage: European Sector (No. 2005/2) The geographical proximity of carbon dioxide point sources in relation to on-shore geological storage reservoirs in Europe were assessed to estimate the net costs involved in sequestering. The results were presented as cost versus storage capacity curves.
Building the Cost Curves for Carbon Dioxide Storage: North America (No. 2005/3) This report provides estimates of the cost versus storage capacity curves for North America.
Copies of these reports are available to those interested in member countries (including Canada) and may be obtained either by contacting the national representative or directly from the Programme at The Orchard Business Centre, Stoke Orchard, Cheltenham, Glos. United Kingdon (E-Mail: mail@ieaghg.org; Fax: +44 (0) 1242 680758; Web: www.ieagreen.org.uk)
Short Notes
- The Global Wind Energy Council has been established by the World Wind Energy Association to reflect the growing importance of this technology. The Council reports that world generation capacity increased 20 per cent in 2004 to 47.3 GW. Germany had the highest capacity at 16.6 GW (equivalent to 35 % of the world’s total) as compared with the U.S. at 6.7 GW (14 %). The generation capacity of the European Union was 34.2 GE (72%) as compared to North America at 7.8 GW (16%). Though wind-power capacity is the fastest-growing form of electricity in Canada, it is increasing from a small base. Before recent announcements, Canadian capacity was about 440 MW (0.9%) but this capacity is expected to increase to over 700 MW by the end of 2005. Wind power in Canada is supported by the federal Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI). The Budget of 2005 increased the target generation capacity to 4 GW with support for this expansion totaling $920 million over fifteen years. Two major installations were announced for the Gaspé region of Québec in March which alone will increase generation capacity to about 550 MW. (Web: www.wwindea.org; www.canren.gc.ca/wppi)
- World solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity reached 927 MWe in 2004, an increase of 62% over 2003. Germany is the leading user with 366 MWe installed with Japan in second place. Japanese manufacturers accounted for 48% of world PV cell production and the U.S. 11%.
- In accordance with the policy of the Province of Ontario, the 1140 MW Lakeview coal-fired generating station on the suburban Toronto lakefront with be closed as scheduled on 30 April 2005 to improve air quality in the city. The provincial government intends to close all coal-fired stations operated by Ontario Power Generation at Atikokan, Lakeview, Lambton, Nanticoke and Thunder Bay which together generate 7,500 MW or about 25% of the province’s electricity by the end of 2007. Several nuclear reactors will be returned to service in partial compensation for this loss. An agreement to restore the reactors at the privately managed Bruce Generating Station was also announced in March.
- Suncor Energy Inc. has announced plans for the further expansion of its oils sands operations on 14 March 2005 which include new facilities for the gasification of by-product petroleum coke to reduce natural gas requirements. This is the first time this technology will be used in an oil sands context. The company expects to increase its output to about 550,000 barrels per day by 2012 which will require an additional capital expenditure of $5.9 billion.
- Professor Kenneth S. Suslick and colleagues at the University of Illinois have observed the formation of plasma in a cavitation experiment which tends to confirm earlier controversial research conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 2002 where Dr. Rusi P. Taleyarkhan reported the fusion of hydrogen into helium. It may be possible to compress bubbles in these systems in such a way that the vapour molecules are heated to very high temperatures. The phenomenon of imploding bubbles was first discovered some fifteen years ago and has drawn the attention of the U.S. Department of Defense.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
General Motors Corporation in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy will undertake a $88 million program involving a fleet of 40 vehicles to be equipped with hydrogen fuel cells to further develop this technology over the next five years. The DaimlerChrysler group, which is now testing about 100 fuel cell-equipped vehicles around the world, will undertake a number of related projects in similar activities. Ballard Power Systems Inc. expects to supply more than half the fuel cells to be used in the U.S. program. The Burnaby, B.C.-based company has also supplied the Mark 902 fuel cells for five Ford Focus vehicles for a three-year demonstration project now begun in B.C. The fuel hydrogen is carried in 5000 psi Dynetek tanks. This latter trial is a component of a five-year $9 million collaboration among the Governments of Canada and B.C., Fuel Cells Canada and the Ford Motor Company working together with Ford of Canada.
Two Ontario companies – Plasma Environmental Technologies Inc. (in association with Kinetrics Inc.) and Astris Energi Inc. - have formed a technology partnership to assess the possibility of feeding fuel cells with hydrogen derived from solid organic wastes. The Plasma Assisted Gasifier developed by the former company converts Municipal Solid Wastes and similar materials into an energy gas from which hydrogen may be obtained. The latter company has been associated with the development of alkaline fuel cells for some years. (Web: www.astris.ca)
The Toshiba Corporation of Japan has announced the development of a faster charging technique for lithium-ion batteries that is some 60% faster than present methods. It is claimed that 80% of the capacity of small batteries of this kind may be re-charged in one minute.
Canadian Energy Up-Date for February 2005
New Reports
International Energy Agency Canada 2004 Review
The Interrnational Energy Agency published Energy Policies of IEA Countries: Canada 2004 Review on 31 January 2005. This was the first such review of Canadian energy policy since 2000 It is the general practice of the IEA to conduct such country reviews every four or five years.
The Review was generally positive in tone. The reviewers showed a deeper understanding of the complexities of the Canadian energy scene – perhaps the most complicated in the world with almost every option available on both the supply and demand sides - than has been the case in the past. It notes that `living up to Canada’a commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, moving to a less emissions-intensive economy and at the same time ensuring continued growth is the biggest single economic and political challenge for Canadian energy policy in the coming years.’ This review, however, did not deal directly with the implications of an impending peak in the world production of conventional oil on an energy-intensive economy such as Canada’s.
Copies of the Review (176 pages ISBN 92-64-10802-5) may be obtained from the Agency on the Web at library.iea.org. The Table of Contents and the Summary of Conclusions and Recommendations may be downloaded in .pdf format without charge.
North American Natural Gas Vision
The North American Energy Working Group (NAEWG), a team of senior energy officials from Canada, Mexico and the United States established as a consequence of the NAFTA Agreement, published North American Natural Gas Vision on 25 February 2005. The report provides information on the natural gas situation in the three countries including forecasts through to the year 2012. The culmination of two year’s efforts by the NAEWG Group, this document provides much factual data and contains many tables, graphs and useful maps of gas production and transportation facilities. It is claimed to be the first such document to amalgamate public information on the natural gas industry in all three countries on a unified basis. The general tone is one of optimism for the prospects for natural gas and it is broadly supportive of the present direction of policy initiatives in this field.
This report of 117 pages may be downloaded from the Web at www.nrcan.gc.ca/ in .pdf format. A previous report North America – The Energy Picture dated June 2002 is still available at this site. The latter document provides a useful integrated overview of the energy situation in the three countries on a self-consistent basis.
Short Notes
- Samuel W. Bodman was confirmed as the incoming Secretary of Energy by the U.S. Senate on 31 January 2005. Mr. Bodman, trained as a chemical engineer (MIT), has held several senior government and private sector appointments, but no direct experience of the energy field.
- Germany now generates more energy from the wind than any other country. In the last fifteen years, 15,000 turbines have been erected, half of these in the past five years, and this number is expected to double by the end of the decade. The country has a target of producing twenty per cent of its electrical needs from renewable sources by 2015 and already ten per cent of its energy consumption came from such sources in 2004. In a particularly innovative trial, a former coastal tanker is being converted to carry two vertical axis turbines to produced hydrogen and oxygen in on-board electrolysis equipment for periodic delivery to markets on shore. Economic assessments of this aggressive wind option are controversial. One recent internal report places the cost of wind-generated electricity at about three times that from conventional sources. Similar studies have been carried out in the U.K. where the National Audit Office has concluded that wind power is the most expensive way to fund reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.
- Viktor Popov of the Wessex Institute of Technology in England has developed an improved system for the recovery of methane from municipal solid wastes disposed in landfill dumps. This material is covered by two relatively impermeable layers separated by relatively permeable material which is pressurized with carbon dioxide. The methane resulting from the biological action in the underlying MSW is thus less contaminated with oxygen. The method is applicable to most landfills and is described in
A New Landfill System for Cheaper Landfill Gas Production which appears in Renewable Energy (Elsevier) Vol. 30 No.7 June 2005, p. 1021 (Web: www.sciencedirect.com).
Canadian Energy Up-Date for January 2005
New Reports
Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics
The Newsletter of the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) for the First Quarter of 2005 contains two articles from Canada. Jean-Thomas Bernard, Frédéric Clavet and Jean-Cléophas Ondo of Laval University write on Canada-U.S. Electricity Trade and GHG Emissions Policies: The Situation in the North East and David McKeagan of McGill University contributes About How We Keep Score on Fuel Economy and How it Impacts Greenhouse Gas Production. Other papers include: Ensuring the Future Construction of Electricity Generation Plants: The Challenge of Maintaining Reliability in New U.S. Wholesale Electricity Markets by A Josph Cavicchi and Andrew Kolesnikov; Creating a Commercial Environment for Energy Projects – Lessons from Central and Eastern Europe by Robert Eric Borgström and Hydrogen Strategies Under Uncertainty: Risk-Averse Choices for `Hydrogen’ Pathway Development by Lorna A. Greening..
The Newsletter may be obtained from the IAEE at 28790 Chagrin Boulevard, Suite 350, Cleveland, Ohio, 44122. (Fax: 216-464-2737; E-Mail: IAEE@IAEE.org; Web: www.IAEE.org)
Meeting the Climate Challenge
This new report was prepared by the Institute for Public Policy in the U.K., The Centre for American Progress in the U.S., and The Australia Institute and breaks new ground in the climate debate in that it specifies the danger point beyond which the would be committed to serious consequences from climate change. Dr. Rakendra Pachuri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, served as the scientific advisor. This `red line’ point was set at two degrees C above the average world temperature prevailing in 1750 before the start of the industrial revolution. The authors believe it is inevitable that the world will reach this temperature when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere exceeds 400 ppm(v). The present level is about 379 ppm with the rate of increase some 2 ppm annually. The authors thus conclude this dangerous threshold will be crossed in a decade. This release of this report was timed for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and to support Prime Minister Blair’s efforts to advance climate change policy as the current chairman of both the G8 countries and the European Union.
Short Notes
- The Federal Government reached an agreement for the disposition of the revenues arising from offshore petroleum production with the Provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia on 28 Jan. 2005. The two provinces will keep all revenues without affecting equalization payments for a period of eight years until they reach the average standard of all the provinces. If this does not occur within the eight year period, the agreement may be extended for another eight years. In addition, the Federal Government will provide $2 billion to Newfoundland and $830 million to Nova Scotia.
- The papers and posters presented at the 7th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-7) held in Vancouver 5-9 September of 2004 are now posted on the Web at www.ghgt7.ca where they will remain until the publication of the proceedings which is expected in mid-2005. Other recent papers released by the IEA Greenhouse Gas RandD Programme include: Improvement in Power Generation with Post Combustion Capture of CO2 PH4/33 November 2004; Use of the Clean Development Mechanism for CO2 Capture and Storage PH4/36 December 2004; and Modelling of Ocean Storage of CO2 - The GOSAC Study PH4/37 December 2004. The latter studies are available to readers in member countries who participate in this activity (including Canada) from the IEA Greenhouse Gas RandD Programme, The Orchard Business Centre, Cheltenham, Glos. United Kingdom GL52 7RZ (Fax: +44 (0) 1242 680758; E-Mail: andrea@ieagreen.demon.co.uk; Web: www.ieagreen.org.uk.)
- Professor Edward H. Sargent and his colleagues at the
University of Toronto have been able to extend the range of operation of polymer-based solar cells into the infrared region. This was accomplished by incorporating nano-sized crystals into the polymer. In combination with conventional visible spectrum polymer photovoltaics, it is possible some 30 per cent of the sun’s incident energy could be converted into electricity as compared with about six per cent with the best plastic solar cells at present. The material could be painted onto surfaces or produced in rollable form. Plastic solar cells promise substantially lower costs than the hitherto more efficient silicon-based types. (Web: www.news.utoronto.ca)
- On 10 January 2005, Canada’s main steel producers as represented by The Canadian Steel Producers Association have joined with the Federal and Ontario Governments in a
Memorandum of Understanding to address emissions of greenhouse gases by the industry. The MOU sets out a work program that includes the examination of near-term opportunities to improve energy efficiency and so reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Also included is a $300,000 contribution to the first phase of an effort to develop new processes by the industry organized under the auspices of the International Iron and Steel Institute’s CO2 Breakthrough Programme. Particular attention is given to protecting the competitive position of the industry. The MOU with its terms and appendices may be downloaded at www.nrcan-rncan.gc.ca.
- On 17 January 2005, The Minister of Natural Resources, Hon. R John Efford, announced the first funding agreements to the total of $10.8 million under the terms of the Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Incentive Program to Anadarko Canada Corporation, Apache Canada Ltd, Penn West Petroleum Ltd, and Suncor Energy Inc. A call for a second round of proposals totaling $4.2 million is also planned effective April 2005. All the projects are in Alberta and are coordinated with provincial efforts in the same field. Three of the four projects involve the capture of this greenhouse gas and its re-injection into producing reservoirs. Suncor Energy Inc. plans to inject captured carbon dioxide into coal seams to determine the sequestering characteristics of this procedure including its potential to enhance the extraction of methane from coal.
- Kevin Trenberth and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, reported to the American Meteorological Society in January that the fraction of the world’s land area suffering from drought has more than doubled in the last 30 years and ascribe this change to rising temperatures resulting from global climate change. This is despite the fact that the total moisture in the atmosphere is increasing. The explanation for this apparent contradiction is that the rain tends to fall in an increasing number of severe storms. In the case of the U.S., total precipitation increased by seven per cent in the last century but the fraction classified as heavy precipitation increased by twice this amount. Researchers at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in the U.K. have found that Arctic rivers are now discharging increasing amounts of freshwater into the ocean at the expense of decreased precipitation in the tropics.
- According to the Solar Heating and Cooling Programme of the International Energy Agency, the installed capacity of such devices around the world reached about 70 GW (thermal) in 2004.
- A petroleum engineer at the University of California-Berkeley, Tad W. Patzek, has posted a study of the
Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle on the Web. In this paper, Professor Patzek first addresses the general issue of sustainability and then calculates that more energy derived from the fossil fuels is used to produce the ethanol than the calorific energy in the fuel product. The comparison on a free energy or Second Law basis is even worse. He also estimates the high cost of this option to taxpayers in the U.S. The paper of 95 pages in .pdf format may be found on the Web at the following URL: petroleum.berkeley.edu/papers/patzek.
- In work supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), a group of authors from U.S. and Russian universities and research establishments have replicated their earlier surprising results that nuclear fusion has been found to occur in the cavitation mode in what is termed `bubble fusion.’ The paper Additional Evidence of Nuclear Emissions During Acoustic Cavitation was published in the Physical Review `E’ Transactions in January 2005.
- A Chinese company, the Shenhua Group, has announced its intention to build that coultry’s first coal liquefation plant in the Mongolia Autonomous Region. The facility, expected to be operational in 2007, would produce about 100,000 barrels per day.
- Electric Vehicles and Hydrogen
A survey paper published in the December 2004 issue of
Physics Today by George W. Crabtree (Argonne National Laboratory), Mildred S. Dresselhaus (M.I.T.) and Michelle V. Buchanan (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) entitled The Hydrogen Economy has been made available on line at www.physicstoday.org. This paper presents an overview of the scientific issues involved in establishing a hydrogen economy. The potential importance of the emerging nano-scale technologies in overcoming problems at various stages of the production, storage and use of hydrogen is noteworthy.
Inquiries, contributions or corrections concerning the Up-Date Section should be addressed to:
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