The conversion of one million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE), the basic energy unit employed in the Review, was taken here as 41.868 petajoules and the specific factors applied to the three fossil fuels were: for oil -19.9 million tonnes of carbon (not the dioxide) per exajoule (MTC/EJ); for natural gas -13.8 MTC/EJ; and for coal - 24.1 MTC/EJ, all calculated on the basis of the higher heating value. Should it be desired to express emissions in terms of carbon dioxide rather than the carbon convention used in this note, the factor is 3.67. The data listed in the following table is useful for making relative comparisons among nations and regions, and between the subject year and that preceding. Absolute values have to await detailed `bottom-up' assessments. The limitations on the use of energy consumption data for the estimation of carbon dioxide emissions have been noted previously. (Walsh, J.H. (1993) 1992 Carbon Dioxide Sheet, Energy Studies Review, 5:2, p.131-5).

World

Global emissions of carbon dioxide from the three fossil fuels increased by 2.54% in 2006 compared to 2.60% in 2005. The total primary energy consumption (excluding biomass and non-commercial forms of energy as is the practice in the Review) rose 2.40% compared with 2.39% in 2005. The fossil fuels accounted for 87.8% of the world's total primary energy consumption in 2006, a slight increase over 2005.

Canada and other Industrialized Countries

The United States remains the largest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions from the fossil fuels and accounted for 21.44% of the world's total in 2006 but there is now evidence of a consistent downward trend with 22.38% reported for 2005, 22.98% reported for 2004, 23.91% for 2003 and 24.74% for 2002. Three of the countries listed here had declines in absolute emissions in 2006 as compared to 2005: France, Japan and the U.S.

Emissions in the Eastern European/CIS category eastern region increased +3.78% in 2006. Emissions increased less (+0.50%) from the twenty-five nations of the European Union.

Though a member of the EU, France is listed separately because of the importance of nuclear power in that country which provided 78.1% of the electrical generation in 2006. Nuclear energy accounted for 38.9% of the primary energy supply calculated on the fuel input basis. Lithuania previously relied on nuclear generation to an even greater extent but the three reactors in that small country are in the process of closure under the terms agreed for its membership in the European Union. French emissions decreased slightly at - 0.74% in 2006. In Canada and France, natural gas is a larger source of carbon dioxide emissions than coal and, in the eastern group of nations, emissions from this convenient fuel were greater than from either oil or coal.

Developing Countries

Emissions in Brazil increased by 2.77% in 2006 as compared to 3.03% in 2005 with stable economic growth. Chinese emissions grew by a large 8.53% in 2006 but less than the 9.10% reported for 2005 reflecting its continuing rapid economic expansion. In India, emissions increased 5.03%, markedly greater than the 2.34% reported the previous year. Per capita emissions remain low in all three large developing countries at 0.54, 1.16 and 0.33 tonnes C/person/year respectively. Emissions rose 2.92% in the rather heterogeneous Rest-of-World category, which grouping accounted for 40.72% of the world's population. Per capita emissions increased slightly in these nations to 0.63 tonnes C/person/year from 0.61 the previoux year. Per capita emissions for the world as a whole were 1.20 tonnes per person in 2006. With the world population 6.53 billion in 2006, emissions would have had to be reduced to about 0.43 tonnes per person to stabilize concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Other Statistical Sources

A Short History of the Kyoto Protocol

On 5 November 2004, Russia became the 126th country to ratify the Protocol after approval by its Duma. With this commitment, there were sufficient adherents among the industrialized countries to account for the required 55% of the emissions of the six greenhouse gases for the chosen base year of 1990 as required under the agreement. Russia officially informed the United Nations of its ratification on 18 November 2004, and ninety days later, on 16 February 2005, this first international binding agreement to control greenhouse gas emissions became effective. Australia and the United States, with important domestic coal industries, did not ratify the agreement on the grounds of economic disadvantage. No specific targets were required of the developing countries, notably China and India, which were characterized by low per capita emissions as compared to the developed world.

Canada hosted the 11th Conference of the Parties (COP 11) to the Convention in Montreal from 28 November to 9 December 2005 which was attended by some 10,000 participants. The first ever meeting of the Parties to the Protocol (MOP 1) was also held at the same time. Canada played a leading role at these concurrent meetings where more than forty decisions were made to strengthen measures undertaken to deal with climate change. However, the new government of Prime Minister Harper assumed power on 6 February 2006 and in early 2007 announced its intention to stop the rise in greenhouse gas emissions in three to five years. It is planned to reduce emissions by 150 million tonnes to 670 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020 effectively ending its commitments under the Protocol. In June of 2007, the three opposition Parties in Parliament passed legislation that obliges the Government to introduce a new climate-change plan within two months and the related regulations by the end of 2007 to honour Canada's commitments under the Protocol.

Other Developments

There were indications during the year that some evidence of climate change – carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, melting of glaciers, and the rise of ocean levels - were increasing faster than anticipated in the IPCC reports.